From Tony Passaro, publisher of “Tea Party Views” and "The Dagger":
Under the light of a full moon, approximately 500 of the Tea Party faithful came together on a balmy Fall evening to listen to election eve speeches at a local grass roots “Now or Never“ rally.
The rally (organized by Americans For Prosperity) was held in Shamrock Park, not far from the Bel Air public library where early voting polls were already open to voters…..
The speakers included Kendal Ehrlich, Ellen Sauerbury, Jim Rutledge (currently positioned as a write in candidate for State Attorney General), David Schwartz, Chief Organizer of Maryland’s Americans For Prosperity, Dave Pridgeon Chief Organizer for Maryland’s Campaign for Liberty and Tony Passaro publisher of the widely read newsletter, “Tea Party Views” as well as several local businessmen….
Kendal Ehrlich gave a spirited speech and asked the audience, in spite of the polls, to not to give up hope and get the vote out for Bob Ehrlich.
Dave Schwartz advised the audience of the importance of this election and the fact that it would have a long term effect on State and National politics…
Other topics included the rising cost of health insurance to due to Obama Care and the Gerrymandering that would result if Maryland retuned a Liberal O’Malley to the State House (Dave Pridgeon).
Passaro reminded the audience that the current state of affairs was due to voter indifference in the past and that if the Tea Party wanted to take the country back from the Socialists they would need to not only get the vote out but to assist in the election of their local candidates.
A federal judge has ordered the State of Maryland to extend the deadline for accepting overseas ballots by 10 days, the Associated Press reports.
Judge Roger Titus issued an order Friday extending the deadline from Nov. 12 to Nov. 22.
The judge ruled on a lawsuit against the state Board of Elections by a member of the Maryland National Guard who said overseas voters have not been given enough time to obtain and return ballots for next week's election.
The guardsman, identified in court papers as Officer John Doe, and the Washington-based Military Voter Protection Project alleged that officials mailed overseas ballots listing candidates for federal office only by the deadline set in a new federal law designed to protect military voters.
They say this prevents them from voting for state office candidates, including governor.
Democratic leaders were so enthusiastic about the 219,000 Marylanders who participated in the six-day early voting program that Friday there was already talk of expanding it.
Gov. Martin O’Malley, who was campaigning in Rockville, said that he’d like to look at adding more locations there and in neighboring Prince George’s County — where voters stood in line to cast ballots.
The program, which ended Thursday, attracted 6.3 percent of eligible voters and was far more popular than the early voting period for the primary election which only drew 2.4 percent or 77,000 participants.
Democrats cast 64 percent of total early votes, outstripping their voter 56 percent registration advantage. Republicans cast 27 percent of the vote — slightly better than their 26 percent registration, according to the state board of elections. Absentee returns are following that trend, with 65 percent of the vote-by-mail cast by Dems and 27 cast by GOP so far.
Political watchers warned not to read too much into early voting numbers, as The Sun reported earlier this week. Actual results will not be tallied until election day. But that didn't stop partisans from celebrating.
Susan Turnbull, the chairwoman of the state Democratic party, said she was “very pleased” with the participation levels. “These votes are in the bank,” she said. “We don’t have to concentrate on those people,” she said.
Voting picked up as the days went on, with Thursday by far the most popular day at the polls.
Prince George’s county residents cast the most early votes, with 38,500 participating. Baltimore County took second place with 31,000 voters turning out early.
---
Heavily Democratic districts (like PG, Montgomery & Baltimore) need MORE early voting locations... and sprawling rural Republican ones like in Harford County (with only 1) not so much...
Now THERE's a surprising conclusion. < /SARCASM>
btw - More Democrats AND Republicans have voted thus far... Independents being severely underrepresented amongst "early" voters.
In what appears to be a national pattern, the Democratic Party is highlighting a longshot third-party candidate in an effort to undermine a Republican nominee--in this case, Andy Harris, the GOP challenger in Maryland's tightest House race.
The tactic is either a desperation move, or a sign of how close the contest is, or both. It has special resonance in Maryland's First District, where the Libertarian candidate's two percent of the vote arguably tipped the historically Republican seat to Democrat Frank Kratovil in '08.
The Democratic mailer, first reported by Eastern Shore blogger Michael Swartz, masquerades as an attack on Richard Davis, the third man in the race, running again this year on the Libertarian line, with no realistic chance of winning.
Paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the flier describes Davis, twice, as an outsider and Tea Party type.
Davis "plans to cut government spending, will drastically reduce the size of government across the board, is a complete outsider . . . Davis and the Tea Party think government is part of the problem, and want to make it as small as possible."
"Richard Davis: Is he too conservative?" asks the mail piece.
The audience for the flier appears to be conservative voters. The barely disguised ploy to pull votes away from the Republican is a tactic Democrats are using elsewhere, too.
In Illinois, Democrats are promoting another Libertarian candidate, Mike Labno, in an attempt to cut into Republican Senate nominee Mark Kirk's support in conservative southern Illinois, the Wall Street Journal reported this week.
It is tempting to see evidence of a Democratic leaning enthusiasm gap when examining trends in the early voting data released by the state's election board, but national political observers say: Resist that urge.
In Maryland the numbers show that Democratic voters have cast 63 percent of the vote so far -- even though the make up 56 percent of the electorate, a trend the Sun reported in a story for Wednesday's paper. Republicans, on the other hand, made up 27 percent of the vote, doing slightly better than their 26 percent registration.
The data would seem to show that Maryland is already bucking the predicted tend of highly energized GOP voters this year. After all, if the Rs were truly excited about Maryland's race, wouldn't the numbers show them flocking to the polls ahead of the allegedly disgruntled Democrats?
Jennifer Duffy, of The Cook Political Report, warned that the data is best used as a progress report for the competing D and R early voting programs. Indeed, the Democrats seem to be reaching more people on a nightly basis, though the GOP in Maryland claim they are exceeding goals.
George Mason University's Michael McDonald, who this week got into a lively debate with The New York Times' Nate Silver on this very topic, says early voting seems to be tracking pollsters' predicted outcomes in a number of states. But, he argues that the most insightful way of looking at the figures is to compare them with the turnout breakdowns by party from previous elections. Such a comparison is impossible here where early voting is brand new.
Todd Eberly, of St. Mary's College of Maryland, takes a stab at Mason's suggested analysis anyway and notes that in the September primary GOP voters stayed away from early voting places, but percentage-wise turned out more than Dems when the election was over.
Yesterday's numbers show that twice as many Democrats as Republicans voted. That tracks from the primary early voting turnout. Prince George's County, a Democratic stronghold, notched the highest Day One turnout, with more than 4,600 casting ballots.
Registered voters can head to early voting centers until 8 tonight. One reader reported a line in Towson this morning. The centers are closed tomorrow but will be open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday through Thursday. Check here for details.
Tallies from each day of early voting won't be made public until after the polls close on Election Day, Nov. 2.from The Dagger
The first day of early voting for the 2010 Gubernatorial General Election got underway in Harford County Friday morning with long lines outside the doors of the Bel Air library.
About 25 people turned out to vote before 10 a.m. (there was some confusion as to whether early voting started at 9 or 10 a.m.) Hundreds of signs lined the streets. Bob Ehrlich, Jesse Bane and Andy Harris sign waving volunteers were out in full force. Del. Wayne Norman and Register of Wills hopeful Derek Hopkins were among those to cast the first votes.
It was also announced that Ehrlich would be coming to Bel Air this weekend for an Early Voting Rally at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday across from the Bel Air Library on Hickory Avenue.
---Update 10/29
Early voting is now OVER in Harford County. Your LAST opportunity to vote will be on the original/actual Election Day, this coming Tuesday, November 2.
So, do the folks at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee know something about the Frank Kratovil-Andy Harris rematch that the wise-guy analysts don't?
If not, why have they poured $1.1 million into a race that some--though by no means all--handicappers see as a likely Republican pickup?
The DCCC just put another $300,000 into attack ads against Republican Harris in Maryland's First District, according to a new filing with the Federal Election Commission. That brings the DCCC's total investment in Kratovil's re-election to $1,118,981.78.
That spending vaults Maryland's easternmost congressional district into the top ranks of House races nationally and raises the stakes for a party fighting to keep its majority in Congress.
Perhaps it's simply home-state pride. After all, Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland is the DCCC chair. And Baltimore-born Speaker Nancy Pelosi--the GOP's punching bag in its anti-Kratovil ads--and neighboring Maryland Congressman Steny Hoyer, the Majority Leader, are the top Democrats in the House.
Or might Democratic strategists have reason to think Kratovil will hold off Harris, long regarded as one of the Republican Party's best bets in the nation to take back a Democratic seat this fall?
If it's merely an attempt to entice the national Republican Party into redoubling its support for Harris--which would deflect resources that could be deployed elsewhere--that's a very expensive ploy. For now, though, the National Republican Congressional Committee is being outspent better than two-to-one in the conservative district, which takes in parts of Baltimore, Harford and Anne Arundel counties and the entire Eastern Shore.
The Bel Air Public Library @ 100 E. Pennsylvania Avenue in Bel Air is Harford County's designated early voting site.
Q- Who can vote early? A- Any registered voter can vote during early voting.
Q- When can I vote early? A- For the general election, early voting centers will be open starting Friday, October 22, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010, except for Sunday, October 24th when early voting centers are closed.
Early voting centers will be open from 10am until 8pm each day of early voting. Anyone in line at 8pm will be allowed to vote.
---Update 10/29
Early voting is now OVER in Harford County. Your LAST opportunity to vote will be on the original/actual Election Day, this coming Tuesday, November 2.
Don't let your vote in 2010 be wasted on the same good-ole-boy DC-RINO Tea Party! In a recent article for Forbes magazine, Rick Unger offered the following insightful observation:
It’s the dirty little secret that should haunt every conservative candidate with the presence of mind to see a few years into the future.
The GOP victory likely to be experienced on November 2nd will not only represent the ultimate success of the Tea Party movement, it will also mark the beginning of the end for the well organized anger fest destined to propel a new crop of small government populists into office.
He goes on to state that since the vast majority of the federal budget is dedicated to entitlement spending, there's nothing that can be done about it, funds previously committed MUST be spent. But is he right?
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Well, if the Tea Party movement decides to rest on its' laurels AFTER the November election, he will be right. THAT is why the Tea Party must do something never before witnessed in the annals of American politics. Many of it's RNC party-affiliated activists should strategically resign their "party" membership in Republican held districts from the RNC and re-affiliate along with non-affiliated Tea Party activists as Democrats. And so by 2012, the Tea Party must thoroughly reform and restructure BOTH the Republican AND Democratic Parties in conservative Districts so as to offer the voters a REAL CONSERVATIVE choice, threatening to outflank the newly elected Republicans FROM THE RIGHT and Left. In this manner, going partisan-RINO/ Washington DC native will not be an option for freshmen Republican legislators in 2012. The ship of state will continue its' corrective rightward turn away from the reefs, shoals and sirens of socialism and effect the seemingly impossible goal of enacting entitlement reform, which can then be signed into law by a new and truly post-partisan Republican-Bluedog coalition in the years 2012-14.
It is only by taking VIGOROUS action starting THIS November to shift non-Progressive elements of the Democratic Party to the right that we will be able to re-center our nation and prevent it's ever "Leftward Drift". Progressives do NOT faithfully represent a significant majority in the DNC. They are, however, THE predominating elite minority. We must cease neglecting our civic duties and prevent them from ever again in the future taking hold of the reins of one of our major political parties.
Barack Obama wanted to both be America's first post-partisan President of the United States and to usher in a new post-partisan political era. He didn't accomplish that lofty goal, but WE CAN make sure he's America's LAST UNAMBIGUOUSLY PARTISAN President of the United States. Let his rhetoric become OUR reality.
(CNSNews.com) – Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, in his first televised debate with Republican challenger Bob Ehrlich, repeatedly referred to people who come to this country illegally as “new Americans” on Monday night.
In response to a question, O’Malley called illegal immigration “a huge challenge for our country” and he said the federal government needs to “do a better job” of enforcing the nation’s borders.
He called on Congress to pass a comprehensive immigration reform “so that people who are here can apply for citizenship, obey the law, and pay their taxes and live in the full light and openness and transparency of our American society.
“I do not believe, as the former governor (Ehrlich) has said before, that multi-culturalism is bunk,” O’Malley continued.
“I believe that we are a multi-cultural people and a multi-cultural country, and from many comes one strong nation. And I also believe that we should not blame new Americans for the problems that our country is going through right now. It’s wrong.
“New Americans did not drive Wall Street into a ditch. New Americans did not have regulators look the other way while credit markets were crashed and driven into the ground with false vehicles for investment. New Americans did not get us into a series of unfunded wars that have driven up debt. I believe we’re all in this together – we’ve got to find a better solution to our immigration challenge.”
‘Laws count’
Ehrlich, who answered the immigration question before O’Malley did, noted that governors deal with specific issues regarding illegal immigration, including drivers’ licenses, in-state tuition, and funding. He said he vetoed in-state tuition when he served as governor, and he tried to strengthen the process for obtaining Maryland drivers’ licenses but was stymied by the legislature.
Ehrlich singled out the group Casa de Maryland, an immigration advocacy group, for taking state tax money to print booklets that protect illegal immigrants from the “long arm of the law.” He said he'd applaud groups such as Casa if they would focus on “assimilation” and teaching recent immigrants about capitalism, democracy, and economic empowerment.
Instead, “Our tax money is now going to support illegal behavior,” Ehrlich said. “That’s the clear line that really has to be drawn in this campaign. That’s the clear line that taxpayers are demanding.”
American is a pro-immigrant country,” Ehrlich said. The current debate should be about “a singular American culture – capitalism, equal opportunity, unlimited opportunity. That’s what we should be engaged in,” he said.
“Why should we pretend laws don’t count?” Ehrlich asked. “Drivers’ license laws count. In-state tuition laws count. Taxpayer dollars count. Enforcing the law counts.”
Ehrlich said the situation in Arizona is out of control because both Republican and Democratic administrations have failed the country, the taxpayer and “our way of life.”
One of the biggest lies told to the American people is the false claim that the federal government has total control over illegal immigration. Although the feds are mostly responsible for border security, state and local governments have enacted more than 700 laws designed to protect their citizens from the burdens created by illegals.
Politicians and candidates, like Martin O’Malley, like to mislead the people by telling them that illegal immigration is a federal issue. At the same time, more than 350,000 illegals have flooded into Maryland, costing taxpayers 2 billion dollars and creating problems in healthcare, education, public safety, jobs, and drugs.
O’Malley and the rest know the solutions are at the local level. The Governor and the General Assembly leaders have transformed Maryland into America’s premier “sanctuary state.” It is almost impossible to pass much needed common sense legislation against illegals at the state level although we must continue to make the effort.
Now it is time to take the battle to the local level. In Baltimore County, we have a key election that will place in office a new county executive and many freshman council members. This is the perfect time to initiate a powerful grassroots movement dedicated to guaranteeing that Baltimore County will lead the state in creating a “rule of law” environment discouraging illegals from coming here. Illegals may continue to flood into Maryland, but they will not enter Baltimore County. I call the program, ”Stop Illegals.” The symbol will be a stop sign. The plan consists of four elements.
1) E-VERIFY - Every county employee, applicant, contractor and sub-contractor must pass an E-Verify test procedure to confirm their lawful presence in the United States.
2) 287 G FEDERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT PROGRAM shall be enacted by the County Executive. This existing successful program is utilized in more than 80 counties across the country. It provides federal funds, intelligence, and assistance with the arrests of dangerous criminal illegals, especially gang members. They are deported immediately out of the county into federal custody, saving local taxpayers money.
3) SAFE NEIGHBORS – Local police shall have the authority upon first visit to a nuisance house to fill out a police report which would generate mandated identification. Should identification fail to be produced and there is reasonable suspicion that a person may be an illegal alien, the immigration enforcement office will be contacted immediately. There are too many nuisance houses in Baltimore County neighborhoods with multiple families unlawfully residing in the units creating problems. This law will help correct the problem.
4) ENGLISH RECOGNITION - No county or Board of Education funds shall be used for any programs, policy, printing, or other action using a foreign language unless reviewed and approved by the County Executive and the entire County Council. The cost of an approved action must be fully disclosed to the public. E.S.O.L. and other federal programs are exempt. A questionnaire will be provided to all of the candidates for County Executive and County Council prior to the November 2 General Election seeking their position on the “Stop Illegals” Program. No response will be considered non-support. All results will be made available to the public. More importantly, I will work to organize a “Citizens’ Grassroots Movement” supporting the “Stop Illegals” Program designed to lobby the new County Executive and County Council for their support after the election.
For information, contact Delegate Pat McDonough by calling 410-238-0025 or send an e-mail to Patmcdee@comcast.net.
The next televised gubernatorial debate will not be held in the state of Maryland. It will be in Washington, D.C.
Gov. Martin O'Malley, a Democrat, and former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich, a Republican, will sparwith each other for an hour at a live forum noon on Thursday.
The event, to hosted by The Washington Post, WAMU and WUSA, has been the topic of considerable bickering between the two campaigns, but came together shortly after today's WJZ forum.
It is free and open to the public but anyone wishing to attend must register and seats are limited, according to the Post. The Post offices are at 1150 15th Street, NW.
Also scheduled next week are two radio debates. One on Oct. 21 to be broadcast by WOLB and another the next day on Oct. 22 at WTOP.
Watch/replay the entire 2nd Washington Post Ehrlich-O'Malley Maryland Gubernatorial Debate here.
---- Update 10/20
One of the two radio debates between the state's two gubernatorial contenders is off the table - for now at least.
The Post's John Wagner reports that the debate planned in the Washington suburbs at WTOP radio was canceled because both candidates want to attend the funeral of Betty Peebles a co-founder of an important Prince George's County megachurch.
A spokesman for Republican former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich said their camp "hopes" to reschedule and is "working" to do so. Rick Abbruzzese, with Team O'Malley, said they are "continuing to work" with the station and Ehrlich's campaign to find reschedule. With the election about two weeks away, the timing might be hard.
Ehrlich and Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley with still face off at 8 a.m. Thursday at Baltimore's WOLB radio station.
From Harford County Republican Central Committee member Frank Dupree:
My name is Frank, and I am a Republican. I have attended numerous tea parties over the past 18 months and I am very excited about the upcoming elections.
I would like to thank the voters of Harford County for electing me to the Republican Central Committee because I think we can really take advantage of the resurgence of conservative values to get the Maryland tax-and-spend situation under control.
And while I have your attention, I would like to point out that I am proud to be a home schooler, proud to be a Christian, proud to live in Aberdeen, and proud to be an American of African descent. Contrary to news reports, I have never felt uncomfortable at a Tea Party or republican club meeting. I signed the Liberty Pledge to secure freedom for all Marylanders, and I was proud to have my photo on the literature we mailed and passed out at the polls.
There are many black Republicans seeking Congressional seats in the US: 12 of them, all impressive in their own ways. In Maryland, we even have a former Marine Major in Charles Lollar, challenging Steny Hoyer for the MD-5 seat.
This is a great opportunity for us to look past race and start looking at principles. I support candidates who care about job creation, fair taxes, and economic prosperity. I support candidates that put community, family, and God above government.
Consider what you stand for, and consider voting Republican this year.
CHICAGO — President Obama used twin campaign appearances on Thursday to lash out at the private money that has filtered into Republican coffers for the November election campaign, suggesting that some of it came from abroad, and urging the Democratic Party faithful to symbolically drown out the cash with their “millions of voices.”
In a not-so-veiled reference to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, President Obama complained that “groups that receive foreign money are spending huge sums to influence American elections, and they won’t tell you where the money for their ads come from.” Mr. Obama mentioned a report by the Center for American Progress, a liberal research group, which this week asserted in a blog that the Chamber of Commerce may be mingling money from foreign contributors with its domestic receipts as it pays for advertisements and other political activities. That could be illegal, and the Chamber has vehemently denied it.
His remarks came at campaign events first in Bowie, Md., where he rallied about 4,000 students and African-Americans to support Gov. Martin O’Malley, and then later in Chicago, where he stumped for Alexi Giannoulias, the youthful state treasurer who is locked in a close fight with Representative Mark Steven Kirk, a Republican, for Mr. Obama’s old Senate seat.
In Chicago, Mr. Obama did not mention Mr. Kirk’s name — he became, instead, “Alexi’s opponent” — but he spent much of his time attacking the Republican Party for its ties to big business.
The combined Chicago events, organizers said, will raise more than $750,000, half for Mr. Giannoulias and half for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
The Republican Party’s “big idea,” Mr. Obama said, was to give a tax cut to the wealthiest Americans. “At a time when education is the biggest predictor of this country’s success,” he said, “they think it’s more important to provide these tax breaks.”
In Bowie, Mr. Obama characterized the outside campaign financing as not “just a threat to Democrats.”
He added: “All Republicans should be concerned. Independents should be concerned. This is a threat to our democracy. The American people deserve to know who’s trying to sway their elections.”
White House officials and Mr. Obama’s Democratic backers have been taking aim at the Chamber of Commerce; Karl Rove, President George W. Bush’s political adviser; and independent groups that have been spending to elect Republicans in November. The Chamber of Commerce on Thursday announced a new campaign focusing on the administration’s rules on health care, the environment, labor and Wall Street reform.
David Plouffe, Mr. Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, told reporters in Washington that such groups “are becoming the central financial actors in the 2010 election.” He called the flood of money a “hijacking of our democracy.”
Whether that sticks remains to be seen. Backers of Republicans and big business counter that Democrats, including the Obama campaign, also received money from undisclosed organizations in the 2008 campaign.
Mr. Obama has been seeking to fire up his Democratic base in the last three weeks before the November elections. To that end, he has been devoting a lot of his campaigning to friendly audiences on college campuses — like the historically black Bowie State University — and to fund-raisers, like the one in Chicago.
Facing what most political observers predict will be significant losses of the Democratic majority in Congress, Mr. Obama was using every weapon in his arsenal to convince the people who put him in the White House two years ago not to abandon the Democratic Party now.
“Don’t make me look bad now,” he said. “I’m betting on you.”
Mr. O’Malley, who is battling the Republican he beat when Democrats were riding high in 2006, former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., sounded familiar Democratic themes in introducing Mr. Obama.
“They took six years to drive the country into a ditch, and then wonder why this president can’t make it right as rain in 18 months,” Mr. O’Malley said.
But then, foreshadowing the tough road for his party this year, Mr. O’Malley added, perhaps unhelpfully, “They can take back New Jersey, they can take back Virginia, but they can’t take back Maryland!”
---
We'll see about takin' back Maryland, Mr. Soon-to-be-Ex-governor...
I wonder if it was his speech that made two dozen of his supporters sick... or whether they just beat a few "dissenters" up.
One theme emerging from the crowds of people waiting to see President Barack Obama: The Tea Party has competition.
Brenda Pridgen, a 59 year old Baltimore resident isn't particularly enthusiastic about Gov. Martin O'Malley but came to “restore my understanding that the whole country has not gone crazy.”
She'll vote for O'Malley, a Democrat, reluctantly. “When you have two devils to chose from you might as well pick the one who is more progressive,” Pridgen said. “You can’t vote for the top of the ticket and leave the bottom naked.”
Faye Salisbury, 59 year old Bowie woman took off work from her human resources job to attend the rally out of a desire to “be part of the crowd.” Salisbury does not blame Obama – or O’Malley – for the rocky economy, which she said “feels like it hasn’t gotten any better” and also wanted to show that Republicans are not the only voters enthused this season.
Naturally there were a few perennial rally goers. Yvonne Neal, an 80-year-old Maryland Democrat used her O’Malley campaign sign as a chair. (Pictured on left) She said she comes to “as many rallies as possible” and reports back to her senior citizens community in Upper Marlboro. ----
Republican challenger Andy Harris holds an insignificant lead over incumbent Democrat Frank Kratovil in the race for Congress in Maryland's easternmost district, according to a new poll just out.
The survey, the first independent poll to be released in the high-profile contest, suggests that the 2010 rematch could be about as close as the 2008 election, which Kratovil won by roughly 3,000 votes.
In the new poll, Harris, a veteran state legislator from the Baltimore suburbs, is favored by 43 percent of likely voters to 40 percent for Kratovil, a first-term representative from the Eastern Shore. Another 15 percent said they were undecided.
When the poll's 4.9 percent margin of error is taken into account, the contest is a statistical tie. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted September 28-30.
The results reflect the strong Republican leanings of the district, which went for the Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin over Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden by almost 20 points.
However, the survey offers some flickers of hope for Kratovil, considered one of the most endangered Democrats in the country. It shows him winning independent voters by a 38-35 margin.
Independents make up the largest bloc of undecided voters in the district.
In fact, Kratovil was one of just two freshman Democrats out of 12 nationwide in the new survey to be leading among independents. The former Queen Anne's County prosecutor has been highlighting his independent voting record in his re-election campaign.
The survey was published by The Hill, a Capitol Hill publication, and conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, a Democratic firm that has done work for the Clintons. The poll was co-sponsored by America’s Natural Gas Alliance, a trade association representing gas producers and exploration companies.
Interestingly, the survey asks respondents whether they would favor Obama or Hillary Clinton if the Democratic primaries were held today.
In Maryland One, which includes the entire Eastern Shore and portions of Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Harford counties, the answer was Clinton. But that includes answers from Republicans. Among Democrats in the district, Obama was the pick and they approved of the job he is doing by 72 percent to 24 percent.
Overall, most likely voters in the district disapprove of the job Obama is doing. A total of 59 disapproved compared with 38 percent who approved. Independents gave him a negative job rating, by a 52-44 margin.
It has been a standard line for years about Democratic Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski: She's "the most popular politician in Maryland."
Not any more, apparently.
Mikulski is still viewed favorably by Maryland voters. A total of 52 percent of registered voters in a newly released Washington Post poll gave her a favorable rating.
But that's down from 64 percent favorability in the same poll, in January, 2004, the last time she ran for re-election.
By comparison, the statewide poll, conducted Sept. 22-26, showed two other politicians whom Maryland voters view more favorably than Mikulski: Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley, rated favorably by 64 percent, and Republican nominee Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., by 55 percent (that last number falls within the poll's margin of error with Mikulski's, but O'Malley's does not).
She may no longer be Maryland's favorite pol, but the 74-year-old senator appears to be cruising toward another six-year term in Washington.
The Baltimore native holds a lopsided two-to-one lead in the poll over Republican challenger Eric Wargotz, a Queen Anne's County commissioner.
The state's senior senator led by 59 percent to 24 percent among registered voters and by 61 percent to 29 percent among likely voters. The survey found Mikulski leading Wargotz in every part of the state and among nearly all demographic groups, the Post said.
Campaign analyst Stu Rothenberg attributed Mikulski's drop in popularity to anti-incumbent sentiment seen nationwide this year. But that speculation may not account for her slippage in favorability, since O'Malley, also an incumbent, drew a higher rating in the same survey.
Instead, the responses of younger voters help explain her fall from first place.
Among those in the 18 to 34 age group, Mikulski's favorable rating declined from 53 percent in 2004 to 32 percent. Her unfavorable rating rose by 9 percent and the percentage of those expressing no opinion increased by 12 points, to 48 percent.
Even younger voters who favored Mikulski were unfamiliar with her and her work, the poll found. As the Post noted, Mikulski is an influential senator, but she's not a party leader and doesn't chair a full committee. She also doesn't attract national attention to her campaigns because they're not competitive.
Her favorability also fell sharply among Republicans, independents and white voters (clearly there's overlap among those categories).
Democrats see the "Union Model" as the future of America. But let's face it, the large scale industrialization that employs millions of union workers is only able to make advantage of an efficient, surplus creating division of labour if manufacturing self-destructing weapons of war, destroying and then rebuilding of an enemies "means of production" and/or providing goods for destroyed markets post-conflict.
Unionization is NOT the economic model for America. A smaller scale agrarian and technologically oriented non-corporate bourgeoisie serving continental American markets is a much more practical and self-limiting model for future economic development.
National political analyst Charlie Cook disregarded a recent Washington Post poll giving Gov. Martin O'Malley an 11 point advantage among likely voters in his rematch with former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich and yesterday moved the contest from "leans Democrat" to "toss up."(note to self - Disregard Sun's blatant O'Malley bias in trying to paint the current Governor invulnerable)
In his Sept. 30 report, Cook stresses that both candidates have said the race will be close, both the RGA and the DGA have poured money into the state, and that this year O'Malley has the "political winds blowing in his face."
"It looks increasingly like the race will end up being a single-digit contest," Cook wrote.
It could also be that Cook is hedging his bets, as he's nearly emptied out all of his other categories and has piled 17 other governor's races in the toss up category. That also shows there's considerable competition for national money.
The report hardly represents a consensus view: Real Clear Politics has Maryland in the leans Democrat column, showing that the last three polls put O'Malley ahead by various margins. RCP guesses that O'Malley has a +5.7 advantage over Ehrlich.
Still, some Maryland prognosticators are scratching their heads about the Post's poll, with Todd Eberly, the interim director at St. Mary's College's Center for the Study of Democracy hypothesizing that the paper's pollster overstated likely turnout. (Eberly e-mailed to say he just chatted with the Post's pollster Jon Cohen and say the survey overestimated Democratic turnout in their model by assuming it would match 2008 numbers and understated GOP turnout by assuming it would be weaker than 2008. "Not likely," Eberly says.)
It is also worth noting, as The Sun's Andy Green did on his Second Opinion blog, that the Post didn't veer from the methodology used for their May poll which showed 47-47 split among likely voters, meaning at the very least the trend line is one Ehrlich will want to turn around if he hopes to win.
From Tony Passaro, publisher of “Tea Party Views” and "The Dagger":
