Saturday, April 18, 2020

It's Just the Flu, People...


from SFGate
Large-scale Santa Clara antibody test suggests COVID-19 cases are underreported by factor of 50-85

It has long been assumed by medical experts that the United States is drastically underreporting the actual number of COVID-19 infections across the country due to limited testing and a high number of asymptomatic cases.

Large-scale antibody tests are expected to give researchers an idea of just how widespread the outbreak is, and preliminary results from the first such test in Santa Clara County suggest we are underreporting cases by at least a factor of 50.

In early April, Stanford University researchers conducted an antibody test of 3,300 residents in the county that were recruited through targeted Facebook ads. Researchers hoped to put together a sample that was representative of the county's population by selecting individuals based on their age, race, gender and zip code to extrapolate study results to the larger community.

The results of the study are preliminary and not peer-reviewed, but the general takeaways would seem to strongly contribute to the notion that there have been a large number of COVID-19 cases that went undetected.

Due to questions over the antibody tests' efficacy, researchers adjusted for test performance characteristics by using the test manufacturer's data and a sample of controls tested at Stanford University. Again, the results are preliminary and the study has not been peer-reviewed, but researchers found a raw, unadjusted antibody prevalence of 1.5 percent, which was scaled up to 2.5-4.2 percent when adjusting for population and test performance characteristics.

Researchers estimate that if 2.5 to 4.2 percent of the county has already been infected, the true number of total cases in early April — both active and recovered — ranges between 48,000 and 81,000. The county had reported just under 1,000 cases at the time the study was conducted, which would mean cases are being underreported by a factor of 50 to 85.

“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.

If the study's numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20. Results also suggest the county is nowhere near "herd immunity," as scientists estimate that 50-60% of the population would need to be infected for the virus to have nowhere to spread.

However, the study's authors caution against extrapolating Santa Clara County results to the rest of the country. The county reported its first case on January 31, and was one of the early national "hot spots" where the virus had gained a foothold. Researchers also acknowledge other limitations of the study, including an overrepresentation of white women between ages 19-64, and "other biases, such as bias favoring individuals in good health capable of attending our testing sites, or bias favoring those with prior COVID-like illnesses seeking antibody confirmation."

In San Mateo County, health officer Scott Morrow made a similar estimation on Monday night.

"I hesitate to give you the following numbers, because first of all they are a guess, and secondly because some will think they are too low to take action," he wrote in a message to the community. "My best guess is that approximately 2-3% of the SMC population are currently infected or have recovered from the infection. That’s around 15-25,000 people and they are all over the county and in every community. I don’t believe this number is off by a factor of 10, but it could be off by a factor of 2 to 3."

At the time of his announcement, the county had 699 confirmed cases of the virus, meaning if Morrow's numbers are correct, the county has identified just 2.7-4.5 percent of its total cases.

31 comments:

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

You should call Dotard with this very important misinformation STAT. Clearly he thinks it is more than "just the flu". He claims he can reopen the country whenever he wants... so what is he waiting for?

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

He's waiting for his Deep State bitches to take their shoes off his naked balls.

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

For aa bunch of Science loving Progressives, you Lefties sure are germophobic!

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

Hoo-ey, you Lefties sure hate Science!

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

LOL! Sure, it's the Left that hates science.

From your linked article: Thomas Ambrosino, Chelsea Massachusetts's city manager... added: "Still, it's kind of sobering that 30 percent of a random group of 200 people that are showing no symptoms are, in fact, infected. It's all the more reason for everyone to be practicing physical distancing".

Your "He's waiting for his Deep State bitches to take their shoes off his naked balls" is conspiracy theory BS. Even if it existed, the "deep state" would not be responsible for Dotard's incompetence.

Joe Conservative said...

But they are TOTALLY responsible for over-estimating the severity of the virus and panicking the MSM.

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

Dotard is the one who is panicked. He blames everyone but himself and HOPES the public will fall for it.

Quote: Biologist and University of Hertfordshire and Anglia Ruskin University lecturer Dr Mark D’Arcy said: "Trump showing that despite being briefed every day about the pandemic for weeks now, he still doesn't know the difference between a virus and bacteria!"... [end quote]

That an idiot is in charge of the country is the real problem.

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

That's because Herr Fauci keeps promising a vaccine...

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

Big Pharma to the $billion resue!

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

Given Dotard's extreme enabling of coronavirus profiteering, you know he is totally on board with Big Pharma making a killing.

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

...and you're not? lol!

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

No. Why would I be? I have no big pharma investments.

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

Like billions for a vaccine...? You're invested as a willing consumer of modern protective amulets....

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

...to ward off Corona...

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

I'll get MY protection like the rest of the herd... letting my immune system grow stronger.

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

You went out of your way to get infected?

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

What part of the future tense don't you understand?

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

So you're planning on getting infected? Your immune system isn't going to do squat unless you get the virus, idiot.

As for "the rest of the herd"... 51K of them have died (so far). Others will have health issues for the rest of their lives. You want to increase those numbers. The rest of us want to keep them as low as possible.

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

lol! Like ~15-25% of Americans I probably already HAD it. The virus already took it's toll in this years seasonal flu statistics.

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

...unremarkable as they were. Corona's "lethality" is less than 0.1%. It's the equivalent of catching a cold.

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

Fauci (Dotard's man): "The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That’s the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this".

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

Best refresh your data. :)

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

March 11, 2000 statements are a lifetime ago in Corona virus years.

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

So what you're saying is that Dotard was (and remains) wrong for taking advice from Fauci. Not fired/replaced yet. Dotard should probably just go with himself as his medical expert. Remember he claimed that Docs were amazed with his knowledge. "How do you know this"? the docs said (according to Dr. Dotard). They must be wondering why they didn't think to inject disinfectants as a Coronavirus cure :(

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

If Trump fired every deep stater or civil servant who gave bad advice, Trump would be the federal government's sole employee.

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

LOL! The most powerful man in the world is also the world's biggest whiny victim. Dotard is about to be fired. He (and trumpers like you) prove what a horrible idea putting a low-IQ nutter in charge of the country was. The USA needs a real leader, not a whiny senile old man. We (the majority of us who voted for HRC) have had enough of your conspiracy theory fantasy BS.

The "deep state", fake news, etc... NOTHING is ever Dotard's fault or responsibility. Past presidents did not have to make up fake entities to explain away their incompetence. Dotard is NOT up for the job. His bungling of the coronavirus response certainly should be the final nail in his political coffin.

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

Joe Biden has hairy legs. And when you rub them up and down, Nobel Peace Prizes rain from heaaven like manna.

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

Dotard claims he is a "stable genius" with a very big "a brain". btw, what's with the extra "A"s you have been inserting into various words. You suffer a stroke recently?

Joe Conservative said...

That's my fat thumb on an Ipad screen talking.

The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

It's just Dotard then.

-FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...

What's Biden's excuse?