Saturday, April 27, 2024

Will US Aid Arrive in Ukraine in Time?

Paul Serran, "Fast-Paced Russian Offensive Yields Over a Dozen Conquered Cities and Villages, as Ukrainian Morale Is Collapsing Along the Front, With Over 100K Troops Deserting Their Positions"
In the much-hyped Summer 2023 offensive, Ukrainian troops repeatedly failed to breach the formidable Russian defensive fortifications of the ‘Surovikin Line’, despite hundreds of billions of western military aid in money and equipment.

Kiev’s assaults faced seemingly impenetrable minefields, multi-layered trenches, dragon teeth and anti-tank ditches, and left a mountain of destroyed tanks and armored cars as a testimony for the new realities of war.

Today, drones, artillery and missiles, coupled with new ‘eyes in the sky’ IRS capabilities (Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) have made offensive actions much more difficult than in the past.

As the Ukrainian offensive efforts wound down, Russia took the initiat5ive fully leveraging its superior firepower and better trained and equipped troops, and by using a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy, kept nibbling at the 600 mile-long frontline, keeping the badly outmaneuvered Ukrainians always in a rush to scramble reinforcements to and fro.

The result, in these last four months, have been quite different than in Kiev’s case, and the localities conquered by the Russian Federation forces have now amounted to well over a dozen cities and villages.

The news of the advances are so rapid and chaotic that I asked social platform X’s AI chatbot Grok to help me with a comprehensive (but not exhaustive list). What follows is Grok’s initial list edited and complemented by me:
Avdiivka: after Russian forces seized this key Donbas city, they rapidly followed up with several nearby villages: Severnoye, Sjeverne, Lastochkyne, Stepove, Orlivka and Berdychi.

Pervomaiske, Donetsk region – Russian forces announced the capture of this village after a year and a half effort.

Semenivka – Russian forces captured this Donetsk village.

Kiselivka – Russian forces have captured part of this Kherson Oblast village.

Novokalinovo – Russian troops are advancing in this Donetsk area, with successes reported in the center of the village.

Otscheretyne – Moscow forces captured most of this Donetsk town, northwest of Adviivka.

Pervomaiske and Vodyaine – These areas in Donetsk were reported to be fully occupied by Russian forces after a year of fighting.

I understand that to some, this above enumeration may come across as a meaningless list of foreign-sounding names, but one cannot escape the understanding: it’s a lot of places.

The list above (once again, not exhaustive) shows that all localities, with the exception of southern Kiselivka in the Kherson Oblast, were concentrated in the Donetsk Oblast (region).

Donetsk is undoubtedly the main immediate objective of the Russian special military operation, because Donetsk and the already conquered Luhansk were the two Russian majority, former Ukrainian breakaway regions that ignited this whole situation.

While the Russian Federation forces have imposed a overwhelming pace to their advances, so far we haven’t seen a complete breakdown of the Ukrainian lines as many feared.

But the seriousness of the problem Kiev faces can be understood by the fact that two Ukrainian sources – including former President Volodymyr Zelensky advisor Oleksi Arestovytch – have revealed that OVER 100K TROOPS have deserted their positions and are unaccounted for.

Now, a report comes from the battle for Oscheretyne: a ‘blunder’ by Ukrainian troops allowed the Russians to capture large parts of the settlement unopposed.

Business Insider reported:
“Russian troops were able to take most of Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, after an apparent rotational error involving Ukraine’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade and its 115th Mechanized Brigade.

The 47th Mechanized Brigade was due to be relieved by the 115th along the front line just east of Ocheretyne.

But as the 47th pulled back, Russia’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade attacked, taking advantage of a gap left by the pending arrival of the 115th.”
The commander of the 47th, Mykola Melnyk, famous for losing a leg during the summer offensive, wrote a rather shocking account on Facebook: the Business Insider translation is “The drastic advancement of the Russians became possible because certain units just fucked off.”

Automatic translation is a bit more tame:
“The Russians entered the outskirts of Oscheretyne yesterday. The rapid advance of the Russians became possible due to the fact that certain units simply lost their positions. I hope they will be disbanded and retrained as attack fighters.”
[That is shocking because it’s the military equivalent wishing them death by putting them on the most dangerous position.]

Melnyk also touches on a fundamental problem for Kiev: there are no troop rotations. They are just expected to fight until they die.

“The holes that ended up are plugged by those who were planned to be taken to recovery, so 47 OMBr is back in action. Another month and it will be a year without rotation.”

A spokesperson for the 115th Brigade denied the allegations. “The unit did not abandon its position,” he said, according to the Financial Times.

Needless to say, this ugly mudslinging between Ukrainian military units is indicative of the dangerous collapsing morale.

In our coverage here of the battle for the key Donbas town of Chasov Yar, we reported about how some elite Azov Nazi units now have rebelled and sometimes do not obey orders:
“But while the fierce Ukrainian defenders have been reinforced with artillery and drones, and electronic warfare devices, as per a Reuters report, the striking feature of this battle is the fact that Nazi Azov brigades seem to be ‘sitting this one out.’
The experience from previous sieges apparently has made the most ideological Ukrainian forces weary of defending ‘to the end’ localities that they deem un-defendable.

Aleksander Khodakovskiy [ironically] writes:
“Information has emerged that Azov, the menace of all the ‘Moskals’, has again refused to sacrifice itself for European values. […] in Ukraine, those who made the mess are now pushing forward the gray masses, who were driven against their will, while they themselves prefer to save themselves for future political feats.”
The telegram channel from the Z 105th regiment:
“However, not everyone faces threats like ‘pincers’, ‘cauldrons’, and other blockades. The 3rd brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (formerly known as “Azov”) is one such example. These nimble soldiers have already departed from Chasov Yar in advance, drawing from their experiences in Mariupol and honing their skills in Avdeevka.”
Besides the 3rd Assault Brigade AZOV refusing to go to Chasov Yar, the 67th Mechanized Brigade (‘right sector unit’) refused orders and left Chasov Yar and reportedly will be dissolved.”

While the new US military aid package will diminish the firepower disparity against Kiev in the short run, and the new mobilization laws will diminish the dire lack of ‘human resources’ in the long run, the collapsing morale of the troops seems to have no antidote in sight.

Meanwhile, Russia advances. Fast.
Are Ukraine's F-16's ready yet?

27 comments:

  1. \\Paul Serran, "Fast-Paced Russian Offensive Yields Over a Dozen Conquered Cities and Villages

    Yeah... of less then dozen houses "cities". :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    Gullible Westerners... AS ALWAYS, just REPEATING liliPut's propaganda. :-)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    "Fast paced", my ass. 100 meters per day. :-)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    On the from of 1 kilometer.

    ReplyDelete
  2. \\In the much-hyped Summer 2023 offensive, Ukrainian troops repeatedly failed to breach the formidable Russian defensive fortifications of the ‘Surovikin Line’, despite hundreds of billions of western military aid in money and equipment.

    BS.

    ACTUAL number of "hundreds of billions of western military aid in money and equipment.
    " was 70 Leopard MBT and 300 Bradleys -- AMOUNT of *ONE* infantry brigade (not even Armored brigade)

    How many tanks are in a U.S. battalion?
    How many tanks are in a tank platoon? Company? Battalion ...
    US Army:A tank platoon typically has 4 tanks. A tank company typically has 3 tank platoons, for a total of 12 tanks. A tank battalion typically has 3 tank companies, for a total of 36 tanks. A tank brigade typically has 3 tank battalions, for a total of 108 tanks.

    And with that... that "unpenetrable" ‘Surovikin Line’ was breached on big swatches of frontline.

    Means...

    if only support of that MISERLY amount of equipment provided... would NOT be stalled as far as in August -- on the pinnacle of that offensive, when it STARTED showing results...

    Now we'd be able to see RFia on its knees, begging for mercy.





    ReplyDelete
  3. \\Blogger The Prophet Dervish Z Sanders said...

    \\ Won't "Bi-den" make sure it doesn't?

    It... already DID.

    In August of 2023.

    ReplyDelete
  4. That gave its master liliPut dire needed time to re-group and to re-arm.

    ReplyDelete
  5. And even to start bragging "our economy is on the rise".

    ReplyDelete
  6. If that is NOT stalling help for defending side and providing dearly needed help to aggressor... then WHAT is????

    Go read about ww2 Lend-Lease... how it was sent without delays, in homeric amounts and even after it was not much needed.

    But... you are cretin. And you'd show your cretinity just one more time here. ;-P

    ReplyDelete
  7. \\Kiev’s assaults faced seemingly impenetrable minefields, multi-layered trenches, dragon teeth and anti-tank ditches, and left a mountain of destroyed tanks and armored cars as a testimony for the new realities of war.

    Propagandistic lie.

    Revealing liliPut's puppet.




    \\As the Ukrainian offensive efforts wound down, Russia took the initiat5ive fully leveraging its superior firepower and better trained and equipped troops,

    Oh... shuddup. :-)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    It's tickling. :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    It sound as direct re-translation from RFia's military propaganda outlet "Zvezda".

    :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))




    \\and by using a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy, kept nibbling at the 600 mile-long frontline

    BS.

    Where's that on the map????

    There's just 3 (THREE) small-sized "breaches".




    \\keeping the badly outmaneuvered Ukrainians always in a rush to scramble reinforcements to and fro.

    Directly from mouth of liliPut.

    That keep babbling about "Ukrainian reinforcements soon will be depleted"... for a half a year already.




    \\The result, in these last four months, have been quite different than in Kiev’s case, and the localities conquered by the Russian Federation forces have now amounted to well over a dozen cities and villages.

    Name em!

    With number of inhabitants attached. ;-P

    That territory is just tightly inhabited. And agricultural in nature.

    So... in reality.

    That is ONE small town (Avdiivka)... that was attacked... for this all TWO years.

    And dozen of small farms around.




    \\Avdiivka: after Russian forces seized this key Donbas city,

    WAAAAAAAAAT????????????????

    KEY city of Don-buss is... Donetsk -- 1 million megapolis.

    And Avdiivka... is just satellite-town of that megapolis. Around 20.000-50.000 of inhabitants.

    Like a large village.




    \\Pervomaiske, Donetsk region – Russian forces announced the capture of this village after a year and a half effort.

    And WHAT size of such typical village???

    Can anyone LOOK at map... for god sake.

    That is settlement of several dozens to several hundreds of individual houses...

    Few kiliometers in diameter.

    So.

    In Realty.

    "Brave and Victorious Russian Army".

    Took 2-3 km swatches of land... after bombing it out into the ground... for TWO years.

    Yeah.... REAL DEAL blitzkrieg. :-)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    My ass. :-)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))








    ReplyDelete
  8. \\I understand that to some, this above enumeration may come across as a meaningless list of foreign-sounding names, but one cannot escape the understanding: it’s a lot of places.

    Yaeh. Like higher shelve in closet. Lover shelve in closet. Main compartament.

    That's a lot of places... even if that closet is suffocatingly small. :-)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))0

    ReplyDelete
  9. \\While the Russian Federation forces have imposed a overwhelming pace to their advances

    Yeah.

    Dozen kms in TWO years.

    Hitler with its blitzkriegs, that conquered nearly all Europe in that span of time... should be ashamed. :-))))))))))))))))))))))

    ReplyDelete
  10. \\But the seriousness of the problem Kiev faces can be understood by the fact that two Ukrainian sources – including former President Volodymyr Zelensky advisor Oleksi Arestovytch – have revealed that OVER 100K TROOPS have deserted their positions and are unaccounted for.


    Yeah.

    Defector and liar.

    ALL need to listen for.

    ReplyDelete
  11. \\Russia’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade

    :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))


    Looks like some commissar used Google Translate. ;-P

    ReplyDelete
  12. \\[That is shocking because it’s the military equivalent wishing them death by putting them on the most dangerous position.]

    Yeah.

    "Shocking".

    To sissy-pussy westerners.

    But, no biggie... continue like that -- pacifying aggressor... and you'd have YOUR time to die in trenches...

    ReplyDelete
  13. \\In our coverage here of the battle for the key Donbas town of Chasov Yar, we reported about how some elite Azov Nazi units

    That was Right Sector... dumb ass.

    Not all "nazis" are from Azov. ;-P

    Like for example... there is volunteer battalion called... surprise-surprise -- Donbas.

    Because... that is unit out of INHABITNTS of the region. That took arms to protect their ground.

    Natives.

    Which was fake-blamed being "nazis" by AGGRESSOR's propaganda.



    PS See.... why there is lots of propaganda about "nazis from Azov"... and practically NoNE about other "nazis".

    Because even gullible idiots from the West... would start suspect something... if that'll be propaganda about "nazi battalion Donbas"... fighting against "innocent" "rebels" of Donbas. ;-P

    ReplyDelete
  14. \\is the fact that Nazi Azov brigades

    WAAAAAAAAT?????

    How??/ And when??? it became plural????????????? :-))))))))))))))))))))))

    ReplyDelete
  15. \\Aleksander Khodakovskiy [ironically] writes:


    Yeah... citing RFia MILITARY propagandist...

    One with it's hands in blood of innocents.

    Is SURE TRUE source of dis-information.







    ReplyDelete
  16. Qtard: \\ Won't "Bi-den" make sure it doesn't?\\It... already DID. In August of 2023.

    So? Why so much babbling? Soon it will be time to celebrate Putin's glorious victory. Surely the evil puppet "Bi-den" and his master Putin will be so happy. Qtard will be very happy too, yes?

    ReplyDelete
  17. \\Soon it will be time to celebrate Putin's glorious victory.

    Your and Bi-den desired result?

    Seems like it.



    \\Qtard will be very happy too, yes?

    Sure. Your alter-ego "Qtard"... will be happy.

    Thank you for revealing it.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Qtard: Your and Bi-den desired result?

    Your alter ego "Your" and the imaginary Bi-den? Yes. Thank you for admitting that YOUR alter ego "Qtard" will be happy.

    I don't have an alter ego "Qtard".

    ReplyDelete
  19. :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    continue-continue, cretin. :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Cretin" keeps on showing us what kind of )) he really is, eh Q?

      Delete
    2. ๐Ÿ”บDervish! How ya doing๐Ÿฆค๐Ÿฆค๐Ÿฆค๐Ÿฆค๐Ÿฆค? Are you finally able to sit down after Q gored you with the truth? ๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜†. I will admit to one thing: it was absolutely funny watching you getting swatted by him. You're still smarting from the spankings ๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜†๐Ÿ˜† I think I'll have some ๐Ÿฅฎ & ๐Ÿจnow.

      Delete
    3. What truth did Qtard swat me with, Mystere? I only see Qtard lies. Zero truths. Can you explain what truths you think you saw?

      Delete
  20. Of course.

    'Cause you are NewSpeakean cretin, which thinks that "Truth... it's Lie" and vice versa.

    But, continue-continue, cretin. :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    ReplyDelete
  21. Qtard: 'Cause you are NewSpeakean cretin, which thinks that "Truth... it's Lie" and vice versa.

    Definite self referring talks.

    ReplyDelete
  22. :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    Continue-continue, cretin. Your self-revealing self-referring babbling. ;-P

    ReplyDelete