Friday, September 29, 2023

Biden Throws Ukraine Under the Bus? Has "Bigger Fish to Fry"? Will Taiwan be Next?

Francis P. Sempa, "Edward Luttwak: The U.S. Must End the Russia–Ukraine War"
“We have a dangerous future because of ... Xi Jinping.”


When Edward Luttwak speaks, world leaders listen — and now they must consider heeding his advice on Ukraine.

Luttwak has been advising world leaders, including U.S. presidents, since the 1980s. He is the author of seminal books on history and strategy, including The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire, The Grand Strategy of the Byzantine Empire, The Rise of China vs. The Logic of Strategy, Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace, and Coup d‘État: A Practical Handbook. Most recently, he has been writing about the Russia–Ukraine war and about China for the online journal UnHerd, and he recently appeared in an hour-long podcast on UnHerd’s website.

Luttwak believes that despite all the talk in Washington and in other Western capitals about “unwavering support” for Ukraine, Western leaders, including President Joe Biden, seek a negotiated settlement with Russia. The much-anticipated Ukrainian offensive has stalled. Russia’s government survived a scare by the Wagner Group, and its troops are fighting better now than in the first year of the war. Historically, “when Russia goes to war they always mess up” at first, Luttwak says, but “as the war goes on Russians fight better,” and that is what is happening now. Top U.S. officials, like CIA Director William J. Burns, recognize this fact and have advised Biden accordingly, which is why Biden poured cold water on the Ukraine-in-NATO suggestion. Putin, Luttwak noted, has also publicly pulled back from the “nuclear threat” in a signal to Ukraine and the U.S. that a negotiated solution is possible. Luttwak also contends that Ukraine’s leaders also know that a negotiated peace is the most realistic scenario for ending the war.

U.S. leaders, according to Luttwak, want a Russia–Ukraine settlement precisely because of the more significant geopolitical threat of China in the western Pacific. This is in line with what former Pentagon official Elbridge Colby has suggested. That threat, Luttwak says, is centered around the person of Xi Jinping, who Luttwak believes is “obsessed” with China’s “rejuvenation” and who thinks China’s “rejuvenation” demands reunification with Taiwan — if necessary, by force. Xi is preparing China for war.

One clue that China is preparing for war, Luttwak contends, is Xi’s recent order to Communist Party officials across the country “to rapidly increase the supply of arable land by any means possible.” Luttwak compares this order to Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward,” which sacrificed tens of millions of Chinese in a futile effort to quickly industrialize China in the late 1950s to early 1960s. China, Luttwak notes, produces enough food to feed its population, but it relies on imports from Argentina, Canada, Brazil, and the United States to feed its cattle, pigs, ducks, and chicken. Xi knows that if China goes to war over Taiwan, those imports “would quickly dry up.”

This means that China is reversing its recent “reforestation efforts” in order to increase the amount of arable land — land that will be needed to produce beans, wheat, soya, and other cereals — in the event of war. And it is doing this by forcible means if necessary — just the way Mao did during the Great Leap Forward. Luttwak notes that during the last few months, Xi has spoken about the need to prepare for “extreme circumstances” and for “worst-case and extreme scenarios,” which Luttwak believes are codewords for preparing for “the danger of war.” Those remarks coincide with Xi’s recent orders to Chinese commanders in the Taiwan Strait theater to increase “training under real combat conditions to raise the capability to fight and win.”

In his interview on the UnHerd website, Luttwak compared Xi to Mussolini, whose bluster and aggression in the 1930s helped bring on World War II. Mussolini saw war as a way to rejuvenate the Italian people. Luttwak believes Xi sees war over Taiwan in similar terms for China. “When somebody keeps talking about war,” Luttwak says, world leaders should take note. Some American leaders understand this, but others do not. Those who understand Xi and the threat China poses to American interests in the western Pacific want the Russia–Ukraine war to end —sooner rather than later — so that U.S. policymakers can focus on the greater threat in the western Pacific.

“We have a dangerous future,” Luttwak says, “because of … Xi Jinping,” whom he describes as a tyrant who is leading the Chinese people — and, perhaps, much of the world — into a potentially catastrophic war. We would be far better off if the Chinese people killed Xi, Luttwak says, but unfortunately tyrannicide is out of fashion.

...or is this disinfo a prelude to WWIII NATO war w/Russia?  Time will soon tell. 

32 comments:

  1. Ukraine's not being thrown under the bus? We're going to reverse a 50 year tradition of throwing nations under the bus after failed wars?

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  2. Russia lost? Then the next step is to help Ukraine rebuild.

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  3. \\and its troops are fighting better now than in the first year of the war

    Like, HOW??? :-)))))

    What that venerable strateist sees as "better" in what that chmobiks do? :-)))))))

    Not going in headless chiken attacks? But that is NOT because they became better, smarter, whatever.

    Just CANNOT. Eradicated Progojin. And hlo did not found strength to declare mobilisation of NEXT million of chmobiks... to became fertelizer for rich black ukrainian soil.

    Wanna snatch defeat out of claw of Victory, ah, America? ;-)


    \\ Historically, “when Russia goes to war they always mess up” at first, Luttwak says, but “as the war goes on Russians fight better,”

    Yup.

    Exactly what liliPut saying.

    Maybe that venerable strategist purse was enriched with some rubles? ;-P



    \\Putin, Luttwak noted, has also publicly pulled back from the “nuclear threat” in a signal to Ukraine and the U.S. that a negotiated solution is possible.

    :-))))))))))

    Hilarious.

    He just repeated that threats SO MANY TIMES... that it would need SOME REAL demonstration -- and that liliPut DO NOT NEED, and fear the most.

    So it under cooldown... for now.



    \\Xi is preparing China for war.

    Yep, baby.

    And against WHO... will be that war? Ahh?



    \\In his interview on the UnHerd website, Luttwak compared Xi to Mussolini,

    Again.

    What a dunce!!!

    liliPut -- Mussolini.

    Xi -- Hitler.

    In one-to-one historical corresponence (as much as it can be in history).

    Or... he just FEAR to say it out loud? That dunce-strategist? To not scare out public?

    Till... something big and nucelar will fly-in over 'Merica?

    Prominent Strategist... my ass. :-)))))



    \\...or is this disinfo a prelude to WWIII NATO war w/Russia? Time will soon tell.

    I hope you will not be close to epicenter(s)...

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  4. Let's Take a Look at Our Last Five Democratic Presidents!
    1. LBJ - Prosecuted a disastrous war and condemned African Americans to lives of welfare slavery.
    2. Jimmy Carter - Gave away the Panama Canal, abrogated our treaty with Taiwan and undermined our military.
    3. Bill Clinton - Personally corrupt, sold military secrets to China for campaign contributions.
    4. Obama - Racist America-hater who negotiated with terrorists & gave $billions to Iran for a phony nuclear deal.
    5. Biden - Crooked shake-down artist who would start a new war if he thought it would benefit him politically, and Personally. .

    Quite a lineup, eh? It is a wonder that we haven't collapsed already. Or have we?
    Think About It! A vote for a Democrat is a vote for more Crime, less Freedom, More Open Borders, a Lower Standard of Living, and the Further destruction of our Country.

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  5. \\55 miles from Ground Zero.

    I Hope... Internet will survive it too(it was made for that purpose, still)... and we'd be able to share our experiances and opinions... forever! :-)

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  6. Sounds like someone who comments here is going to be very happy if/when the US is nuked. Wishes its fellow tRump defender good luck though.

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  7. Hey, he's not spending $100b a year to make sure that it happens, like you are, Dervy.

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  8. Doing stupid things -- recieving Bad Luck.

    That is how this World works...

    But basement boy Derpy thinks that it all "bad-bad-nasty dRump" fault, isn't it?

    And if it'll boo him loudly, in unisone with DEMN crowd... bad things will suddenly STOP happening. Yes, De-Ru-Pi? :-)))))

    Or that is that shiny bright Hope... Pelosi "sold" to you all? :-))))))

    But she... will not be covering YOU ALL from misfortune, with her tiny ass.

    That'll be your young brothers and GenZer neighbours. Quickily drafted... well, if they'd have any time for that, even.

    China.

    Have 10 million army ALREADY.

    Rolling and going.

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  9. Dervy isn't worried about that. He's worried about finishing robbing the Bank of the US and transferring it into a Caiman island account before high-tailing it to a country w/o extradition agreements with the USA ;like the Dem pol's

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  10. I'm not worried about either of those things. I can't do anything about the first one. The 2nd one is imaginary.

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  11. Jews under Hitler thought the same way... I presume. ;-P

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  12. Jews under Hitler thought the same way... I presume

    Idiot dunno what side China fought on in WWII?

    Google: World War II was a conflict that involved virtually every part of the world from 1939 to 1945. The clash was between the Axis powers, which primarily included Germany, Italy, and Japan, and the Allied powers, which included Great Britain, France, the United States, the Soviet Union, and China.

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  13. Minus: Hey, he's not spending $100b a year to make sure that it happens, like you are, Dervy.

    You don't know what country Qtard lives in. Means... you don't know how much the government of Qtard's country is spending to help Ukraine. Could be zero. Could be a lot more.

    btw, we live in the same country. So you are also spending $100b a year to make sure that it happens.

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  14. What was said?

    \\Jews under Hitler thought the same way... I presume

    What was the answer?

    \\Idiot dunno what side China fought on in WWII?

    Go figure out... how is that related. :-)))))

    Sheer Power of marasmatic brain of an idiot -- anything matches with anything, indiscriminately... in it. :-))))))

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  15. Qtard: Go figure out... how is that related.

    YOU said they were.

    You wrote: China. Have 10 million army ALREADY.

    I replied: I can't do anything about the [it].

    You wrote: Jews under Hitler thought the same way... I presume.

    Idiot got confused? Can't follow along?

    Qtard: Sheer Power of marasmatic brain of an idiot.

    Talking about yourself? Must be.

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  16. Jews under Hitler thought the same way [about] China. Have 10 million army ALREADY.

    Your words!

    Though I don't know how Jews under Hitler (in the past) could know how many soldiers would be in the Chinese army (in the present).

    But (again) those are your words. You (not me) should explain how that is related. Because I'd be interested in knowing.

    Idk wtf you were thinking, so how the Hell could I possibly explain?

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  17. \\Jews under Hitler thought the same way [about] China. Have 10 million army ALREADY.

    \\Your words!

    Cutted and pasted in some Derpy's moronic try to embelish own idiocy.

    MY words: "Jews under Hitler thought the same way... I presume. ;-P"

    Was DIRECTLY under YOUR words: "Dervish Sanders said...
    I'm not worried about either of those things. I can't do anything about the first one. The 2nd one is imaginary."

    MEANS. It was related TO THIS your non-worries.

    To which I remarked -- that Jew in Nazi Germany probably feeled it the same -- not believing that there'd be a war. And even less, that they'd be victims.

    Well... that is in historical records -- of memories of that Jews that survived through it -- that they didn't wanted to believe that any bad things could happen. Even though all evidances was that that bad things coming.

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  18. Qtard: Cutted and pasted in some Derpy's moronic try to embelish own idiocy.

    Lie. My comment was directly under your comment "China. Have 10 million army ALREADY".

    Means... When I wrote "I can't do anything about the first one", I was responding to your comment about China's 10 million man army.

    Then you said Jews under Hitler were not worried about that. But why should they have been, given that in WWII, China was on the side of the allies?

    But Qtard didn't answer. Called me an idiot and screeched, "my words meant something else!"

    Qtard is embellishing ITS own idiocy.

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  19. Qtard: Well... that is in historical records -- of memories of that Jews that survived through it...

    It is in the historical record that the Jews in Nazi Germany were worried about China's "10 million army"?

    Prove it. What's the evidence? I say you're full of shit. You don't have any idea what you're talking about.

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  20. What a hopeless schmuk. :-)))))))

    Doubling down on own idiocy, even after it was EXPLAINED to it -- how laughable it is.

    But, continue-continue. My little piggy. :-)))))))

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  21. China's army is 2 million. 2.8 million according to this link. Not 10.

    Apparently they mobilized 4 million for WWII. Still, given that China fought on the side of the allies, IDK why you think Jews in Nazi Germany should have worried about the size of China's military.

    Seems like a dumb comment. But I guess you're standing by it.

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  22. Actives? Reserves? Draft Age?

    Here's the latter:
    Chinese eligible for military service: 314,459,083m 296,763,134f
    Americans eligible for military service: 59,764,677m 59,437,663f

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  23. \\Apparently they mobilized 4 million for WWII.

    What was number of Chinese circa 1940?
    What percentage of population was that 4 millions circa 1940?



    \\Seems like a dumb comment. But I guess you're standing by it.

    Yep.

    Yours.

    You doubling down on your idiocy. Pressing full throttle. :-))))))

    That "you think Jews in Nazi Germany should have worried about the size of China's military." -- it's totally YOUR OWN idiotic idea.

    But well, continue-continue. :-)))))



    But well... that gives me a reason for one interesting hypothesis -- that Derpy actually are functonal psycho. Asocial psychopat.

    He... it, cannot understand that there is other people, which have own feelings.

    That's why apparent explanation about WHAT Jews was feeling... it cannot help it, it able to understand only through quickyly constructed non-fact -- that they must be thinking about "10 millions of Chinese". ;-P

    And that... explains a lot in its behavior.

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  24. Qtard: That "you think Jews in Nazi Germany should have worried about the size of China's military." -- it's totally YOUR OWN idiotic idea.

    But I don't think that. Those are your idiotic words. Your words are definitely not my idea.

    Qtard: But well... that gives me a reason for one interesting hypothesis -- that Derpy actually are functonal psycho. Asocial psychopat.

    You and all your alter egos. They're all nuts.

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  25. Qtard: That "you think Jews in Nazi Germany should have worried about the size of China's military." -- it's totally YOUR OWN idiotic idea.

    But I don't think that. Those are your idiotic words. Your words are definitely not my idea.

    Qtard: But well... that gives me a reason for one interesting hypothesis -- that Derpy actually are functonal psycho. Asocial psychopat.

    You and all your alter egos. They're all nuts.

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  26. Your strawmen of my ideas seem good enough for you, Dervy. Why should he be different? "They're all nuts" (and your own Potemkin structures).

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  27. \\But I don't think that. Those are your idiotic words. Your words are definitely not my idea.

    Ha-ha...

    And you can QUOTE... where is that "my words"??? :-)))))

    You are such a clumsy clutsy dumb ass. :-))))))

    And that makes it such a sheer fun. :-))))

    Continue-contunue.



    \\You and all your alter egos. They're all nuts.

    Oh, thank you.

    For this answer to my earlier question -- "which one of your alter-egos are crazy?" ;-P

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  28. Qtard: And you can QUOTE... where is that "my words"???

    I did. Multiple times in this thread already.

    Quote: China. Have 10 million army ALREADY.

    Quote: Jews under Hitler thought the same way.

    Qtard: You are such a clumsy clutsy dumb ass.

    Your alter ego "Derpy"? Or your alter ego "De-Ru-Pi"?

    Qtard: And that makes it such a sheer fun. **moronic laughter***

    Naaah.

    Qtard: Continue-contunue.

    Self encouragement, yes? You're talking to your alter egos Derpy and De-Ru-Pi?

    Qtard: \\You and all your alter egos. They're all nuts\\Oh, thank you. For this answer to my earlier question -- "which one of your alter-egos are crazy?"

    I wasn't answering that question. Said "you" and "your"... Not "me" and "my".

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  29. \\Dervish Sanders said...
    Qtard: And you can QUOTE... where is that "my words"???

    \\I did. Multiple times in this thread already.

    Not just ANY of my words, dumb ass.

    Words that would CONFIRM your claims about me.

    Or words that would demonstrate my follies. MY words. In a form of CORRECT and to the point CITATION.

    Not FAKED. Not EDITED. Ones which can be copied and pasted in Ctrl-F search window, and FOUND in one of my comments. Here or there.



    \\I wasn't answering that question. Said "you" and "your"... Not "me" and "my".

    And you can confirm it with QUOTES? ;-P

    While SAME TIME providing some VIABLE reasoning... why that should be the case?

    I'll remind you. You are one horrificly horrible liar, who often screams "I NEVER said it".

    So.

    Now.

    Why *I* should BELIEVE to your MERE word. NOW. That when you saying "you"... you really mean ME. And that is not JUST ANOTHER of your idiotic lies??? :-))))))))

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