Law vs. a Civilization's S-Curve

Why do civilizations fall?  Because the rules/ laws that govern behaviour for the bottom and top of a civilizations S-Curve need to be radically different(?)

From Google AI:

An S-curve for a civilization describes its historical development as a process of logistic growth, moving through distinct phases: a slow and difficult beginning, a period of accelerated growth and power, a mature phase where growth levels off, and a subsequent decline or collapse. It is a conceptual model, not a rigid law, with key stages of growth driven by technological innovation and cultural diffusion. 

S-curve phases for a civilization

Phase 1: Emergence (Slow beginning)

Description: A civilization's early days are characterized by slow, challenging growth. Founding populations are small, with limited resources and vulnerable social structures.

Key activities: This is a period of experimentation, as people figure out the foundational concepts of agriculture, social organization, and primitive technology.

Driving forces: Early growth is driven by the establishment of basic infrastructure and societal norms, with progress limited by a lack of knowledge and a small population base. 

Phase 2: Accelerated growth

Description: As the foundational elements of a civilization mature, it reaches an inflection point where its growth rapidly accelerates. This explosive expansion is often fueled by technological breakthroughs and more efficient resource management.

Key activities:

• Innovation: Breakthroughs in agriculture, writing, and metallurgy lead to increased productivity and population.
• Expansion: The civilization expands its territory, influence, and trade networks.
• Complexity: Social structures become more hierarchical and complex to manage the expanding population and resources.

Driving forces: A positive feedback loop is created where a larger, more advanced society can sustain a greater number of innovators and institutions, which in turn accelerates growth. 

Phase 3: Maturity (Leveling off)

Description: The civilization approaches its carrying capacity, or the maximum population and complexity its environment and resources can support. As growth slows, the curve begins to flatten.

Key activities:

• Stabilization: Expansion slows as the civilization begins to face diminishing returns from growth.
• Resource depletion: Resources become more expensive, and growth and innovation slow as the market becomes saturated.
• Internal conflict: Competition over resources and power can increase within the civilization.

Driving forces:

• Limits to growth: Environmental constraints and increasing complexity limit further expansion and innovation.
• Strategic myopia: Leaders may become overly focused on managing the existing system rather than adapting to long-term challenges. 

Phase 4: Decline or renewal

• Decline and collapse: The civilization's stability may break down, leading to a period of decay, social unrest, and potential collapse, or a "death" of that S-curve.
• The next S-curve: A civilization may avoid decline by entering a new cycle of growth, driven by a new wave of innovation. This "reinvention wave" acts as the new engine for a subsequent S-curve. For example, a new technology might emerge to solve the problems of the previous phase. 

 The concept of successive S-curves

The history of a civilization is not a single S-curve but a series of overlapping ones, representing major technological and social transitions.

The Agricultural Revolution's S-curve is dwarfed by that of the Industrial Revolution, which is now potentially being followed by a digital or information-based S-curve.

This model suggests that new ideas and technologies emerge as the old ones mature, driving the civilization forward in episodic waves of growth.