Saturday, August 5, 2023

America Has Turned Ukraine into a Graveyard


Douglas MacGregor, "Make Peace, You Fools!: America’s proxy war with Russia has transformed Ukraine into a graveyard."
Incrementalism—the tendency to inch forward rather than to take bold steps—is usually preferred by political and military leaders in warfare, because the introduction of a few forces into action puts fewer personnel at risk, and, in theory, promises a series of improvements over time, often through attrition.

In 1950, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, led by the then-chairman General J. Lawton Collins, recommended short envelopments along the Korean coastline that were designed to gradually increase the size of the U.S. and Allied enclave known as the Pusan Perimeter. The idea was to buy time to assemble enough forces to launch a breakout on the Normandy model. But General of the Army Douglas MacArthur disagreed. He argued for a daring, deep envelopment that promised to cut off the North Korean Forces south of the 38th Parallel that were encircling Pusan.

As it turned out, MacArthur was right. Today, we know that the short envelopments were exactly what the North Korean command was prepared to defeat. In retrospect, it is certain that along with their Chinese allies, the North Koreans were familiar with the operational employment of U.S. and Allied forces during WWII. Eisenhower’s insistence on a broad front strategy that moved millions of troops in multiple armies in parallel across France and Germany to Central Europe conformed to the low-risk formula.

In light of this history, it was reasonable for the North Koreans to believe that MacArthur would never split his forces and launch an amphibious assault far behind North Korean lines. It was simply too risky. And the operational concept for Inchon was also inconsistent with the way U.S. forces were employed during the Civil War and World War I—wars won through attrition, not maneuver.

In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin opted for incrementalism in his approach to the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine. Putin committed fewer than 100,000 Russian troops to a shallow penetration attack on a broad front into a country the size of Texas. Having failed over a period of nearly 15 years to persuade Washington and the collective West of Moscow’s opposition to NATO’s advance to the east, Putin seems to have concluded that Washington and its NATO allies would prefer immediate negotiations to a destructive regional war with unknowable potential for escalation to the nuclear level.

Putin was wrong. He made a false assumption based on rational choice theory. Rational choice theory attempts to predict human behavior based on the assumption that individuals habitually make choices in economics, politics, and daily life that align with their personal best interest.

The problem with the theory is that human beings are not rational.
In fact, the human mind is like a black box. It is possible to observe what goes into the black box and the decisions that come out of it, but the actual decision-making process that unfolds inside the black box is opaque.

In international relations and war, the defining features of human identity—history, geography, culture, religion, language, race, or ethnicity—must also figure prominently in any strategic assessment. For reasons of culture, experience, and innate character, MacArthur was a risk-taker. As Peter Drucker reminds his readers, culture is the foundation for human capital. These realities routinely defeat the unrealistic expectations that rational choice theory creates.

Instead of approaching the negotiating table, Washington discarded the caution, given Russia’s nuclear arsenal, that had guided previous American dealings with Moscow. Washington’s political class, with no real understanding of Russia or Eastern Europe, subscribed to the late Senator John McCain’s notion that Russia was a “gas station with nuclear weapons.”

Putin is not a risk-taker. But he abandoned incrementalism, and rapidly reoriented Russian forces to the strategic defense, an economy of force measure designed to minimize Russian losses while maximizing Ukrainian losses until Russian Forces could return to offensive operations. The Russian change in strategy has worked. Despite the unprecedented infusion of modern weaponry, cash, foreign fighters, and critical intelligence to Ukrainian forces, Washington’s proxy is shattered. Ukraine’s hospitals are brimming with broken human beings and Ukrainian dead litter the battlefield. Kiev is a heart patient on life support.

Russia’s attrition strategy has achieved remarkable success, but the success is making the conflict currently more dangerous than at any point since it began in February 2022. Why? Defensive operations do not win wars, and Washington continues to believe Ukraine can win.

Washington discounts Ukrainian losses and exaggerates Russian losses. Officers present at meetings in the Pentagon tell me that minor Ukrainian battlefield successes (that are almost instantly reversed) loom large in the discussions held in four-star headquarters, the White House, and Foggy Bottom. These reports are treated as incontrovertible evidence of inevitable Ukrainian victory. In this climate, staff officers are reluctant to highlight effective Russian military performance or the impact of Russia’s expanding military power.

The Western media reinforce these attitudes, arguing that the Russian generals and their forces are dysfunctional, mired in corruption and sloth, and that Ukraine can win if it gets more support. As a result, it is a good bet that Washington and its allies will continue to provide equipment and ammunition, though probably not in the quantities and of the quality they did in the recent past.

Warsaw, whose leadership of NATO’s anti-Russian crusade is prized in Washington, finds comfort in the Beltway’s belief in Russian military weakness. So much so, that Warsaw seems willing to risk direct confrontation with Moscow. According to French sources in Warsaw, if Ukrainian forces are driven back, “the Poles may introduce the first division this year, which will include the Poles, the Balts, and a certain number of Ukrainians.”

Now, Washington is misjudging Moscow. The Russian national command authorities may well think that Warsaw’s actions align with Washington’s intentions. President Biden’s executive order to extend hazard pay to American soldiers currently serving in Ukraine (who are not supposed to be there) no doubt reinforces this opinion.

But it is far more likely that the Polish tail wants to wag the American dog. The Poles know their military intervention in historic Galician Ukraine will provoke a military response from both Belarus and Russia, but Warsaw also reasons that Washington’s air and ground forces in Europe are unlikely to sit quietly in Ukraine, Romania, and the Baltic littoral while Polish forces fight a losing battle.

In
dulging Poland’s passion for war with Russia encourages Poland to follow the Ukrainian example. The very idea must leave Moscow no choice but to bring all of Russia’s military power to bear simultaneously against Ukraine, before the collective West stumbles into regional war. Make peace, you fools, before it’s too late.

34 comments:

  1. America didn't invade Ukraine. America isn't bombing Ukraine. The Russian military (directed by Vlad Putin) did both of these things. If this is a proxy war, it is one Putin started.

    FYI, "In 2010, the country's parliament passed a law banning Ukraine from joining any military bloc, effectively banning it from entering NATO though maintaining opportunities for cooperation. According to a poll conducted by Pew Research Center the fall before, just over half of Ukrainians disapproved of NATO and the idea Ukraine might try to join, while just 28% approved".

    So, Ukraine didn't want to join NATO, yet Putin invaded due to fears of Ukraine joining NATO?

    "A few years later in 2014, the mood had shifted drastically after protests deposed Ukraine’s then-president and Russia annexed Crimea. A Ukrainian pollster found in July of that year that 44% of Ukrainians supported becoming a part of the alliance, representing the first time a plurality of Ukrainians were in favor. Just 19% of people had felt the same way in a similar question the group asked in 2012".

    As Putin's aggression toward Ukraine increased, Ukrainian citizens were MORE inclined to want to join NATO. Sounds like this is Putin's fault to me. Not the USA's.

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  2. America promised Ukraine more and more. Those false promises got them attacked.

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  3. When? What were these alleged "promises"? Was a promise "you can join NATO"? As I pointed out, Ukraine did not want to join NATO.

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  4. The USA backed a coup in 2014 called Maidan. It rendered all ethnicc Russians 50% of the country, persona non grata. They became the jews" of NAZI occupied Ukraine.

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  5. Imagine if America had backed the NAZI's in in 1938. Well, you don't have to imagine anymore.

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  6. You're probably laughing and thinking, why would America back the NAZI's?

    Capitalism with Chinese values (aka neo-liberalism). That's why.

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  7. Minus: The USA backed a coup in 2014 called Maidan. It rendered all ethnic Russians 50% of the country, persona non grata. They became the jews of NAZI occupied Ukraine.

    Those are Putin's narratives. Both claims are false.

    That Ukraine is "Nazi occupied" is absurdly false Putin propaganda.

    The Russian leader said his forces invaded Ukraine because a genocide was underway against Russian-speakers. People in Ukraine say that claim is a hoax.

    Minus: You [are] one of Biden's "mandarins". Of course you support him.

    "55 Days at Peking was released by Allied Artists on May 29, 1963 and received mixed reviews, mainly for its historical inaccuracies..."

    Minus likes historically inaccurate narratives. Like the 2014 Ukraine revolution to oust a Putin puppet was "USA backed". As opposed to a revolution supported by many Ukrainians. Russia was more involved (trying to stop it) than the US was (supporting it).

    IDK what you mean when you say "You [are] one of Biden's mandarins". Am I "a person of position and influence often in intellectual or literary circles"?

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  8. ...you "social influencer wannabe," you!

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  9. btw - I wonder where Q has wandered off to. Do you think he's been Shanghai'd, handed an empty AK-47 and dropped in a trench somewhere in the Donbass? Follow the guy with the ammo, Q. When he dies, pick it up and use your gun.

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  10. American Stinker: The true colors were completely revealed on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, when the electoral democracy in the U.S. really worked as the people voted for Donald J Trump, a man whom the establishment tried their level best to destroy.

    The retaliation for this act of bravery on the part of the citizenry that began from that very day continues presently. [end]

    More of The People voted for Joe Biden. Thus Joe Biden became president. That is how democracy works.

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  11. The hubris of the over-produced and over-edumacated fake elite(s)...

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  12. I agree. The hubris of a fake elite declaring that their edumacation makes them the biggliest "super genius of all time" is astounding. LOL!

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  13. lol! That's what the real elite have. $. They don't need to wash BURISMA CEO cock for kickbacks like Sleepy Joe.

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  14. \\Imagine if America had backed the NAZI's in in 1938.

    More then it was historically?

    The Americans who funded Hitler, Nazis, German economic miracle ...
    www.linkedin.com › pulse › americans-who-fu...
    By 1941, when the second world war was in full-swing, American investment in the German economy totaled $475 million, Standard Oil invested $120 ...

    How Nazi Germany benefitted America's corporations
    www.globalvillagespace.com › how-nazi-germa...
    At the time of Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941, US corporate investment in Nazi Germany came to an estimated $475 million. By ...

    Russia claims US investments in Nazi Germany led to World War II ...
    www.aa.com.tr › politics › russia-claims-us-inv...
    Russia claims US investments in Nazi Germany led to World War II, Holocaust. Russian officials slam comment by US senator during meeting ...



    \\btw - I wonder where Q has wandered off to. Do you think he's been Shanghai'd, handed an empty AK-47 and dropped in a trench somewhere in the Donbass? Follow the guy with the ammo, Q. When he dies, pick it up and use your gun.

    Try to base your assesment on some reality, not moivies. ;-P

    FYI, "Enemy at the gate" was hilarious gimmick to watch. :-))))

    Oh, it's interesting to know what your vets think about "Fury"... or even better "Inglorious Bastards" :-)))))))))))))))



    \\You one of Biden's "mandarins".

    In its dreams.. :-)))))))))))))))))) maybe.



    \\America promised Ukraine more and more. Those false promises got them attacked.

    Like... what for example??? That would be a big news for me.

    I know about promices of USA to Rush'A... well, it would be hard to not to... they whinning about it to not end...



    \\ Ukraine did not want to join NATO.

    Oruelian History Twisting Demn Propaganda Bullshit.

    USA just vetoed it, beforehand. Just to fullfill one of that "promices to Rush'A"... like that of Obama?


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  15. \\The USA backed a coup in 2014 called Maidan.

    And this one -- liliPut's Propaganda. Well... not too distant from Demn one... Yawn.

    Or... you can EXPLAIN -- how exactly that "backing" happened???



    \\ It rendered all ethnicc Russians 50% of the country, persona non grata. They became the jews" of NAZI occupied Ukraine.

    BS.

    Fiorst of all, because there is NO "ethnic russian" -- there is NO such ethnicity in the first place.

    The same as there is no "ethnic britain".




    \\That Ukraine is "Nazi occupied" is absurdly false Putin propaganda.

    Like that Demn CNN article that calls Ukrainian soldiers nazis???



    \\Minus likes historically inaccurate narratives. Like the 2014 Ukraine revolution to oust a Putin puppet was "USA backed".

    Well... because he recieves information through Demn-controlled news media sources?

    That do not know, and do not need a fuck about truth and reality.

    Like that that it Noriega was USA puppet.

    Yanukivich was prezident who was elected by Ukrainian people.

    Who then was tricked into believing that there was some danger to his life.

    Because... same as many citizens of Ukraine he really believed into "Russia and Ukraine is a brother/syster-states"

    That's to say... like if you'd decide to invade Canada. Under pre-text that there many English-speaking "ethnic USAians" that struggle under oppression of tha nasty frog-eaters of Quebek.
    And used for that some street riots against government...


    \\As opposed to a revolution supported by many Ukrainians.

    Well... that's "revolution" in a name only.

    That was just a restoration Chain of Command of government... because of Cheif of Command... decided to leave its post.


    \\Russia was more involved (trying to stop it) than the US was (supporting it).

    Rush'A orchestrated it all!

    As pre-text for their Crimia peninsula annexation. And then invasion on the east.

    Only thing they didn't ready to Full Blown War... that time.

    But USA... and all of the West. Under spell of Demn/Putin Propaganda that talked about it being "inner political struggles/civil war in Ukraine".

    Though for rational thinkers and analitics it was TRANSPARENT back from 90th. Like in Clany's books.

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  16. I'm glad your back, Q. I was worried about you.

    You're full of sh*t, of course. But it's the right king of sh*t. Patriotism.

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  17. How can Qtard be full of patriotism? You have no idea what country it is a citizen of. Place it claims to be from isn't even real. Maybe it hates it there? If it is a democracy Qtard definitely hates it. Don't know why he keeps bashing Putin and Russia.

    Though maybe Minus thinks "patriotism" means hating your country? Like Minus hates America? I think that's it. What we have here are two totalitarian lovers who hate democracy. Both think donald tRump being "president for life" would be great.

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  18. \\You're full of sh*t, of course. But it's the right king of sh*t. Patriotism.

    Not at all... that's just... pragmatism. ;-P

    Like talking only about things that ARE. ;-)



    Well... I understand it Joe...

    that your assesment is scewed.

    By such as this...

    ""Though maybe Minus thinks "patriotism" means hating your country? Like Minus hates America? I think that's it. What we have here are two totalitarian lovers who hate democracy. Both think donald tRump being "president for life" would be great.""

    POTSriots.

    My condolencies.

    But that is your due payment for being "great" country. ;-)

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  19. Have to put up with idiots? Qtard probably thinks they should be killed. It has expressed its desire for bloodshed numerous times. Why it supported the J6 attack on the Capitol. No doubt it was very disappointed that it wasn't a bloodbath. It would have been happy to see democracy overthrown and Democrats (including Joe Biden) executed.

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  20. :-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

    liliPut style talks. AGAIN.

    It also trying to cover his crimes with "they wanted to kill us first".

    Nazism???

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  21. Gestapo, abbreviation of Geheime Staatspolizei (German: “Secret State Police”), the political police of Nazi Germany. The Gestapo ruthlessly eliminated opposition to the Nazis within Germany and its occupied territories and, in partnership with the Sicherheitsdienst (SD; “Security Service”), was responsible for the roundup of Jews throughout Europe for deportation to extermination camps.

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  22. I have never talked about killing political opponents. I am strongly opposed to killing political opponents. Qtard refers to its words. Not wanting to kill is not a "crime". Qtard is trying to project its desire to kill onto me. Because Qtard hates human rights. Strongly desires people he calls demons (which he abbreviates "Demns") to be murdered. Because these people strongly defend democracy (which Qtard passionately hates). Agreed with Minus FJ that donald tRump should be "president for life" (American's first dictator), but lied and said this was a "joke".

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  23. No, not kill them, "Lock him up!" lol!

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  24. Gibberish.

    Derpy's Escape.

    Yawn.

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  25. What I wrote is PERFECTLY understandable. Except to an idiot like Qtard.

    Labeling my TRUE words (written in perfectly 100% understandable English) "gibberish" is Qtard's Escape.

    As for locking up political opponents, Minus is against it now? Thinks James Comey being locked up would be a bad idea?

    tRump (speaking to his supporters) recently said "I am your vengeance". Minus would be very disappointed if tRump becomes president again and seeks vengeance against his enemies (his enemies being your enemies... or so tRump spins it)?

    fyi, donald tRump isn't facing prison time because he is running for president. He is facing time behind bars because he broke the law. The prosecutions of donald tRump that are underway are JUSTICE based. They aren't (as per the rightturd spin) "political persecution".

    rightturd spin Qtard will NO DOUBT agree with. Even though (according to it) Qtard's "brain" hasn't been taken over by rightturd propaganda (LOL!). Qtard hears burning bushes whispering to it "dRump collusion with Rasha FAKE!!" and "persecution of dRump means USA is like Nazi Germany!!".

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  26. \\Labeling my TRUE words (written in perfectly 100% understandable English) "gibberish" is Qtard's Escape.

    No. ;-P

    Just a denial to analyse Derpy's propaganda poop. :-)))))))))))))))

    But... it is not denial for you to do that. I want you to poop MOAR!!!!

    My little piggy.



    \\fyi, donald tRump isn't facing prison time because he is running for president. He is facing time behind bars because he broke the law. The prosecutions of donald tRump that are underway are JUSTICE based. They aren't (as per the rightturd spin) "political persecution".

    ONLY.

    If there'd be verdict. In open process. In which general public would see open and obvious evidances.

    If not... it would be definitely political persecution.

    ESPECIALLY, if because of it dRump will lose...

    it definitely WILL be claimed being one. And everybody will be calling it that way.




    \\rightturd spin Qtard will NO DOUBT agree with.

    Is Law and Justice is a "rightturd spin" in Demn-Junky NewSpeak?




    \\Even though (according to it) Qtard's "brain" hasn't been taken over by rightturd propaganda (LOL!). Qtard hears burning bushes whispering to it "dRump collusion with Rasha FAKE!!" and "persecution of dRump means USA is like Nazi Germany!!".

    Miserly idiot. ;-P

    And you can give precisely correct QUOTES -- where I saying anuthing like that? In a given context.

    What a dirty swine of propaganda you are, Derpy. Masterful in spinning the words of opponent in needed direction.

    NOW, I see you not just miserly idiot... but idiot on the service of liliPut -- willing or unvilling, but definitely a Useful Idiot Spreading liliPut's Propaganda.

    And will be treating you accordingly.

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  27. \\Blogger Joe Conservative said...

    \\ I'm glad your back, Q. I was worried about you.

    \\ You're full of sh*t, of course. But it's the right king of sh*t. Patriotism.


    Well... was Clancy patriot of Ukraine, I wonder???

    When he prophesied RFia to turn back to its imperialistic habits and to start new re-conquest in Europe.

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