Mikulski Vulnerable?

from The Balttimore Sun

It has been a standard line for years about Democratic Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski: She's "the most popular politician in Maryland."

Not any more, apparently.

Mikulski is still viewed favorably by Maryland voters. A total of 52 percent of registered voters in a newly released Washington Post poll gave her a favorable rating.

But that's down from 64 percent favorability in the same poll, in January, 2004, the last time she ran for re-election.

By comparison, the statewide poll, conducted Sept. 22-26, showed two other politicians whom Maryland voters view more favorably than Mikulski: Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley, rated favorably by 64 percent, and Republican nominee Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., by 55 percent (that last number falls within the poll's margin of error with Mikulski's, but O'Malley's does not).

She may no longer be Maryland's favorite pol, but the 74-year-old senator appears to be cruising toward another six-year term in Washington.

The Baltimore native holds a lopsided two-to-one lead in the poll over Republican challenger Eric Wargotz, a Queen Anne's County commissioner.

The state's senior senator led by 59 percent to 24 percent among registered voters and by 61 percent to 29 percent among likely voters. The survey found Mikulski leading Wargotz in every part of the state and among nearly all demographic groups, the Post said.

Campaign analyst Stu Rothenberg attributed Mikulski's drop in popularity to anti-incumbent sentiment seen nationwide this year. But that speculation may not account for her slippage in favorability, since O'Malley, also an incumbent, drew a higher rating in the same survey.

Instead, the responses of younger voters help explain her fall from first place.

Among those in the 18 to 34 age group, Mikulski's favorable rating declined from 53 percent in 2004 to 32 percent. Her unfavorable rating rose by 9 percent and the percentage of those expressing no opinion increased by 12 points, to 48 percent.

Even younger voters who favored Mikulski were unfamiliar with her and her work, the poll found. As the Post noted, Mikulski is an influential senator, but she's not a party leader and doesn't chair a full committee. She also doesn't attract national attention to her campaigns because they're not competitive.

Her favorability also fell sharply among Republicans, independents and white voters (clearly there's overlap among those categories).

Does Socialism Require War in Order to be Economically Self-Sustaining?

Democrats see the "Union Model" as the future of America. But let's face it, the large scale industrialization that employs millions of union workers is only able to make advantage of an efficient, surplus creating division of labour if manufacturing self-destructing weapons of war, destroying and then rebuilding of an enemies "means of production" and/or providing goods for destroyed markets post-conflict.

Unionization is NOT the economic model for America. A smaller scale agrarian and technologically oriented non-corporate bourgeoisie serving continental American markets is a much more practical and self-limiting model for future economic development.

Toss Up or Tossing Cookies?

from The Baltimore Sun

National political analyst Charlie Cook disregarded a recent Washington Post poll giving Gov. Martin O'Malley an 11 point advantage among likely voters in his rematch with former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich and yesterday moved the contest from "leans Democrat" to "toss up." (note to self - Disregard Sun's blatant O'Malley bias in trying to paint the current Governor invulnerable)

In his Sept. 30 report, Cook stresses that both candidates have said the race will be close, both the RGA and the DGA have poured money into the state, and that this year O'Malley has the "political winds blowing in his face."

"It looks increasingly like the race will end up being a single-digit contest," Cook wrote.

It could also be that Cook is hedging his bets, as he's nearly emptied out all of his other categories and has piled 17 other governor's races in the toss up category. That also shows there's considerable competition for national money.

The report hardly represents a consensus view: Real Clear Politics has Maryland in the leans Democrat column, showing that the last three polls put O'Malley ahead by various margins. RCP guesses that O'Malley has a +5.7 advantage over Ehrlich.

Still, some Maryland prognosticators are scratching their heads about the Post's poll, with Todd Eberly, the interim director at St. Mary's College's Center for the Study of Democracy hypothesizing that the paper's pollster overstated likely turnout. (Eberly e-mailed to say he just chatted with the Post's pollster Jon Cohen and say the survey overestimated Democratic turnout in their model by assuming it would match 2008 numbers and understated GOP turnout by assuming it would be weaker than 2008. "Not likely," Eberly says.)

It is also worth noting, as The Sun's Andy Green did on his Second Opinion blog, that the Post didn't veer from the methodology used for their May poll which showed 47-47 split among likely voters, meaning at the very least the trend line is one Ehrlich will want to turn around if he hopes to win.