Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Qui Bene?

Pepe Escobar, "Who profits from Pipeline Terror?"
Secret talks between Russia and Germany to resolve their Nord Stream 1 and 2 issues had to be averted at any cost

The War of Economic Corridors has entered incandescent, uncharted territory: Pipeline Terror.

A sophisticated military operation – that required exhaustive planning, possibly involving several actors – blew up four separate sections of the Nord Stream (NS) and Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipelines this week in the shallow waters of the Danish straits, in the Baltic Sea, near the island of Bornholm.

Swedish seismologists estimated that the power of the explosions may have reached the equivalent of up to 700 kg of TNT. Both NS and NS2, near the strong currents around Borholm, are placed at the bottom of the sea at a depth of 60 meters.

The pipes are built with steel reinforced concrete, able to withstand impact from aircraft carrier anchors, and are basically indestructible without serious explosive charges. The operation – causing two leaks near Sweden and two near Denmark – would have to be carried out by modified underwater drones.

Every crime implies motive. The Russian government wanted – at least up to the sabotage – to sell oil and natural gas to the EU. The notion that Russian intel would destroy Gazprom pipelines is beyond ludicrous. All they had to do was to turn off the valves. NS2 was not even operational, based on a political decision from Berlin. The gas flow in NS was hampered by western sanctions. Moreover, such an act would imply Moscow losing key strategic leverage over the EU.

Diplomatic sources confirm that Berlin and Moscow were involved in a secret negotiation to solve both the NS and NS2 issues. So they had to be stopped – no holds barred. Geopolitically, the entity that had the motive to halt a deal holds anathema a possible alliance in the horizon between Germany, Russia, and China.

Whodunnit?

The possibility of an “impartial” investigation of such a monumental act of sabotage – coordinated by NATO, no less – is negligible. Fragments of the explosives/underwater drones used for the operation will certainly be found, but the evidence may be tampered with. Atlanticist fingers are already blaming Russia. That leaves us with plausible working hypotheses.

This hypothesis is eminently sound and looks to be based on information from Russian intelligence sources. Of course, Moscow already has a pretty good idea of what happened (satellites and electronic monitoring working 24/7), but they won’t make it public.

The hypothesis focuses on the Polish Navy and Special Forces as the physical perpetrators (quite plausible; the report offers very good internal details), American planning and technical support (extra plausible), and aid by the Danish and Swedish militaries (inevitable, considering this was very close to their territorial waters, even if it took place in international waters).

The hypothesis perfectly ties in with a conversation with a top German intelligence source, who told The Cradle that the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND or German intelligence) was “furious” because “they were not in the loop.”

Of course not. If the hypothesis is correct, this was a glaringly anti-German operation, carrying the potential of metastasizing into an intra-NATO war.

The much-quoted NATO Article 5 – ‘an attack on one of us is an attack on all of us’ – obviously does not say anything about a NATO-on-NATO attack. After the pipeline punctures, NATO issued a meek statement “believing” what happened was sabotage and will “respond” to any deliberate attack on its critical infrastructure. NS and NS2, incidentally, are not part of NATO’s infrastructure.

The whole operation had to be approved by Americans, and deployed under their Divide and Rule trademark. “Americans” in this case means the Neo-conservatives and Neo-liberals running the government machinery in Washington, behind the senile teleprompter reader.

This is a declaration of war against Germany and against businesses and citizens of the EU – not against the Kafkaesque Eurocrat machine in Brussels. Don’t be mistaken: NATO runs Brussels, not European Commission (EC) head and rabid Russophobe Ursula von der Leyen, who’s just a lowly handmaiden for finance capitalism.

It’s no wonder the Germans are absolutely mum; no one from the German government, so far, has said anything substantial.

The Polish corridor

By now, assorted chattering classes are aware of former Polish Defense Minister and current MEP Radek Sirkorski’s tweet: “Thank you, USA.” But why would puny Poland be on the forefront? There’s atavic Russophobia, a number of very convoluted internal political reasons, but most of all, a concerted plan to attack Germany built on pent up resentment – including new demands for WWII reparations.



The Poles, moreover, are terrified that with Russia’s partial mobilization, and the new phase of the Special Military Operation (SMO) – soon to be transformed into a Counter-Terrorism Operation (CTO) – the Ukrainian battlefield will move westward. Ukrainian electric light and heating will most certainly be smashed. Millions of new refugees in western Ukraine will attempt to cross to Poland.

At the same time there’s a sense of “victory” represented by the partial opening of the Baltic Pipe in northwest Poland – almost simultaneously with the sabotage.

Talk about timing. Baltic Pipe will carry gas from Norway to Poland via Denmark. The maximum capacity is only 10 billion cubic meters, which happens to be ten times less than the volume supplied by NS and NS2. So Baltic Pipe may be enough for Poland, but carries no value for other EU customers.

Meanwhile, the fog of war gets thicker by the minute. It has already been documented that US helicopters were overflying the sabotage nodes only a few days ago; that a UK “research” vessel was loitering in Danish waters since mid-September; that NATO tweeted about the testing of “new unmanned systems at sea” on the same day of the sabotage. Not to mention that Der Spiegel published a startling report headlined “CIA warned German government against attacks on Baltic Sea pipelines,” possibly a clever play for plausible deniability.

The Russian Foreign Ministry was sharp as a razor: “The incident took place in an area controlled by American intelligence.” The White House was forced to “clarify” that President Joe Biden – in a February video that has gone viral – did not promise to destroy NS2; he promised to “not allow” it to work. The US State Department declared that the idea the US was involved is “preposterous.”
It was up to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to offer a good dose of reality: the damage to the pipelines posed a “big problem” for Russia, essentially losing its gas supply routes to Europe. Both NS2 lines had been pumped full of gas and – crucially – were prepared to deliver it to Europe; this is Peskov cryptically admitting negotiations with Germany were ongoing.

Peskov added, “this gas is very expensive and now it is all going up in the air.” He stressed again that neither Russia nor Europe had anything to gain from the sabotage, especially Germany. This Friday, there will be a special UN Security Council session on the sabotage, called by Russia.

The attack of the Straussians

Now for the Big Picture. Pipeline Terror is part of a Straussian offensive, taking the splitting up of Russia and Germany to the ultimate level (as they see it). Leo Strauss and the Conservative Movement in America: A Critical Appraisal, by Paul E. Gottfried (Cambridge University Press, 2011) is required reading to understand this phenomenon.

Leo Strauss, the German-Jewish philosopher who taught at the University of Chicago, is at the root of what later, in a very twisted way, became the Wolfowitz Doctrine, written in 1992 as the Defense Planning Guidance, which defined “America’s mission in the post-Cold War era.”

The Wolfowitz Doctrine goes straight to the point: any potential competitor to US hegemony, especially “advanced industrial nations” such as Germany and Japan, must be smashed. Europe should never exercise sovereignty: “We must be careful to prevent the emergence of a purely European security system that would undermine NATO, and particularly its integrated military command structure.”

Fast-forward to the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, adopted only five months ago. It establishes that Kiev has a free lunch when it comes to all arms control mechanisms. All these expensive weapons are leased by the US to the EU to be sent to Ukraine. The problem is that whatever happens in the battlefield, in the end, it is the EU that will have to pay the bills.

US Secretary of State Blinken and his underling, Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland, are Straussians, now totally unleashed, having taken advantage of the black void in the White House. As it stands, there are at least three different “silos” of power in a fractured Washington. For all Straussians, a tight bipartisan op, uniting several high-profile usual suspects, destroying Germany is paramount.

One serious working hypothesis places them behind the orders to conduct Pipeline Terror. The Pentagon forcefully denied any involvement in the sabotage. There are secret back channels between Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

And dissident Beltway sources swear that the CIA is also not part of this game; Langley’s agenda would be to force the Straussians to back off on Russia reincorporating Novorossiya and allow Poland and Hungary to gobble up whatever they want in Western Ukraine before the entire US government falls into a black void.

Come see me in the Citadel

On the Grand Chessboard, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan two weeks ago dictated the framework of the multipolar world ahead. Couple it with the independence referendums in DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye, which Russian President Vladimir Putin will formally incorporate into Russia, possibly as early as Friday.

With the window of opportunity closing fast for a Kiev breakthrough before the first stirrings of a cold winter, and Russia’s partial mobilization soon to enter the revamped SMO and add to generalized western panic, Pipeline Terror at least would carry the “merit” of solidifying a Straussian tactical victory: Germany and Russia fatally separated.

Yet blowback will be inevitable – in unexpected ways – even as Europe becomes increasingly Ukrainized and even Polandized: an intrinsically neo-fascist, unabashed puppet of the US as predator, not partner. Vey few across the EU are not brainwashed enough to understand how Europe is being set up for the ultimate fall.

The war, by those Straussians ensconced in the Deep State – neocons and neoliberals alike – won’t relent. It is a war against Russia, China, Germany and assorted Eurasian powers. Germany has just been felled. China is currently observing, carefully. And Russia – nuclear and hypersonic – won’t be bullied.

Poetry grandmaster C.P. Cavafy, in Waiting for the Barbarians, wrote “And now what will become of us, without any barbarians? Those people were some kind of a solution.” The barbarians are not at the gates, not anymore. They are inside their golden Citadel.

41 comments:

  1. Let's see. Are you know and able to cope with facts.


    \\Every crime implies motive.

    Is war a crime?
    Because we are in (preliminary)WW3 already. From RFia's standpoint for very least. They claim they Fight Back NATO and "nasty anglosaxes".


    \\The Russian government wanted – at least up to the sabotage – to sell oil and natural gas to the EU.

    Why they started war? Why they started limiting their gas supply?
    Why they emptied gas storing facilities they own in Europe, in year 2021?
    While demonstrating war preparations and amassing of military forces.
    Isn't it just like "Hitler just wanted some slack for his people. That is nasty anglosaxes who escalated it to a war" type of talks here?


    \\ The notion that Russian intel would destroy Gazprom pipelines is beyond ludicrous.

    And this called argument? :-))))
    To one who are self-proclaimed avid reader of Tom Clancy.
    And even admirer of his Red Storm piece.
    Please, be vocal id that is true.


    \\ All they had to do was to turn off the valves.

    Yeah. And that is what they did.
    But. Europe was not swayed. And only explained that that'll recieve severe punished in court. Infrigment of contracts.
    So, RFia tryed to play "act of god" card.


    \\ NS2 was not even operational, based on a political decision from Berlin.

    Naah. That is RFia that tryed to push it with NONE obligations to honor European energy laws. To make it in a energy weapon and yoke over Germany and Europe.


    \\The gas flow in NS was hampered by western sanctions.

    BS. Counter-factual.


    \\ Moreover, such an act would imply Moscow losing key strategic leverage over the EU.

    They ALREADY lost it.
    So they tryed to Double Down.
    Is it that hard to understand?

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  2. .


    This case solved. Ultimately. And anticlimacticly.

    They reported it themself -- one pipe is working. And that is... surprise-surprise, not... one of North Stream 2 pipes.

    And even smaggly declared, that they are open to negotiate use of it in winter... and you can devise yourself, what could be cost of it.


    So, if you, my inquering opponent do not know yet or cannot groke meaning of word:

    gambit noun
    gam·​bit | \ ˈgam-bət How to pronounce gambit (audio) \
    Definition of gambit
    1 : a chess opening in which a player risks one or more pawns or a minor piece to gain an advantage in position
    2a(1) : a remark intended to start a conversation or make a telling point
    (2) : TOPIC
    b : a calculated move : STRATAGEM



    I washing my hands here.


    Well... not quite. I am open to discuss any conspirological argument you'll be able to come up with. ;-P

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  3. Russian chess always starts in Zugzwang 🤣

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  4. Is war a crime?
    Because we are in (preliminary)WW3 already. From RFia's standpoint for very least. They claim they Fight Back NATO and "nasty anglosaxes".


    Every nation is born of "crime", so are nations criminal? And if so, what would be a "crime" against one? A fight amongst thieves?


    \\Why they started war? Why they started limiting their gas supply?
    Why they emptied gas storing facilities they own in Europe, in year 2021?
    While demonstrating war preparations and amassing of military forces.
    Isn't it just like "Hitler just wanted some slack for his people. That is nasty anglosaxes who escalated it to a war" type of talks here?


    I can't say "precisely" why they started the war. I suspect it's much the same reason as that of every hysteric... when words fail, we resort to violence. Zizek would call it, in many cases, "Divine violence". It is something to be avoided, when possible... the other acts, were attempts at the same conversation. Symptoms of the building "hysteria". Putin spoke, but most likely, we didn't listen.... leading to escalation. I hear Putin, and I believe him... we forced the escalation. Perhaps we'll listen... once our "masters" begin to feel his pain themselves.


    \\ The notion that Russian intel would destroy Gazprom pipelines is beyond ludicrous.
    And this called argument? :-))))
    To one who are self-proclaimed avid reader of Tom Clancy.
    And even admirer of his Red Storm piece.
    Please, be vocal id that is true.


    The pipeline was "leverage". One does not surrender one's leverage in a "negotiation" unless one has "nothing to lose" by doing so.


    \\ All they had to do was to turn off the valves.
    Yeah. And that is what they did.
    But. Europe was not swayed. And only explained that that'll recieve severe punished in court. Infrigment of contracts.
    So, RFia tryed to play "act of god" card.


    Yes, Putin wanted the West to acknowledge his "leverage", else, blowing up the pipeline would have been his 1st step. An "unconditional" act of committing to war. A Lacanian, almost "suicidal" "passage a l'acte"

    ...continued

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  5. \\ NS2 was not even operational, based on a political decision from Berlin.
    Naah. That is RFia that tryed to push it with NONE obligations to honor European energy laws. To make it in a energy weapon and yoke over Germany and Europe.


    Putin is supposed to honor Europe's Green Energy suicide pact? lol!

    \\The gas flow in NS was hampered by western sanctions.
    BS. Counter-factual.


    The US wasn't pressuring Germany to NOT buy Putin's gas?


    \\ Moreover, such an act would imply Moscow losing key strategic leverage over the EU.
    They ALREADY lost it.
    So they tryed to Double Down.
    Is it that hard to understand?


    What leverage did the Allies gain from destroying the pipeline? The very definition on "intelligence" is to create options for oneself, not eliminate them unless such as move was a pawn sacrifice.


    So, if you, my inquering opponent do not know yet or cannot groke meaning of word:
    gambit noun
    gam·​bit | \ ˈgam-bət How to pronounce gambit (audio) \
    Definition of gambit
    1 : a chess opening in which a player risks one or more pawns or a minor piece to gain an advantage in position
    2a(1) : a remark intended to start a conversation or make a telling point
    (2) : TOPIC
    b : a calculated move : STRATAGEM


    So what, then, was gained by the gambit? Lost opportunities for Putin to sell gas? Qui bene?


    Russian chess always starts in Zugzwang ��

    I like the term, but fail to see the application here. The Neocons have just doubled down on war. But ultimately, it was what they were seeking in the first place. A casus belli pretext. A Gulf of Tonkin incident.

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  6. Zugzwang is a point in chess where an opponent has to move a piece, but moving any piece weakens their position catastrophically and irrecoverably.

    Russia is in Zugzwang. Running out of pawns to sacrifice.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Wanna know the difference between Russia and the US? The US grows weaker and decays daily, while Russia grows stronger.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The rot of progressive liberalism has hollowed us out.

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  9. I see. Wanna play? :-)


    \\while Russia grows stronger.

    Yep, in their marasm. :-)))


    \\Anonymous (((TC))) said...
    Zugzwang is a point in chess where an opponent has to move a piece, but moving any piece weakens their position catastrophically and irrecoverably.

    And why you so stupid, TC? Because you banned in Google, maybe? :-))))

    Zugzwang - Wikipedia
    en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Zugzwang
    Zugzwang is a situation found in chess and other turn-based games wherein one player is put at a disadvantage because of their obligation to make a move;


    See. I even made it in bold. Fer ya.

    But I know prematurely that my efforts wasted on you. :-))))

    They said "do not feed swines with pearls"... but what if that swine -- your pet?



    \\I like the term, but fail to see the application here. The Neocons have just doubled down on war. But ultimately, it was what they were seeking in the first place. A casus belli pretext. A Gulf of Tonkin incident.

    Yeah. Because that Zugzwang is more like about what Put want to push West into.
    West do not want WW3.
    West do not want any war in Europe.
    West want to continue "business as usual". But Put, he thinks as reckteer. That he found vulnerable side of West. And he trying to exploit it to the fullest.

    While West trying to stay in a state of Ignore of a Threat.
    But it becomes harder and harder, to keep being an oustrich. :-)))) Bcause hiyenas can chomp off ass of such oustrich. And Lion, lurking around, to feed on the corps too.


    \\So what, then, was gained by the gambit? Lost opportunities for Putin to sell gas? Qui bene?

    Not chess player?
    Gambit that is NOT sure win move. Even for grossmeister.

    And we have novices with over-grown self-esteam trying to play it.
    Novices who started playing chess only recently, and unknowingly to themself.
    They still think they play chekers. :-)))))))))


    \\What leverage did the Allies gain from destroying the pipeline? The very definition on "intelligence" is to create options for oneself, not eliminate them unless such as move was a pawn sacrifice.

    Allies???
    Not Axis?
    ;-)


    \\The US wasn't pressuring Germany to NOT buy Putin's gas?

    Is it wrong to plead reason in between friends?
    And, was they wrong? In a hindsight.
    Do you really want to "sell" all NATO assets, earned SO hard... and for what? For nothing? What's the big point for a USA to back off here?
    To screw up situation at hands to a level of disaster, to be forced to fight heroicly to fix it??? That is the Strategy??????


    \\Putin is supposed to honor Europe's Green Energy suicide pact? lol!

    He could hit that road anytime.
    But he still trying to negoriate. Well, to "negotiate".



    \\The pipeline was "leverage". One does not surrender one's leverage in a "negotiation" unless one has "nothing to lose" by doing so.

    Again. What do you know about history of that part of the World?
    About economy. About politics. And etc.


    \\I suspect it's much the same reason as that of every hysteric... when words fail, we resort to violence.

    That was far-far-far... far away, from hysteric.
    That is how Put tryed and trying to play it to the West. Decidedly.
    And you are under influence of this his PsyOp move.
    Congrats to Put. At least something he got right. (well, same as Hitler in his time, anyway)


    \\Every nation is born of "crime", so are nations criminal? And if so, what would be a "crime" against one? A fight amongst thieves?

    So what? Nazis was "wrongly accused"??? Hitler was "innocent victim"???? :-)))))

    Well, you can admit it to me freely. I am not Woke screamer.
    Even interesting to meat and discuss things with real deal NN.

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  10. How can someone Google the definition of Zugzwang because they don't know what it means, still get it wrong, and act like they are teaching anyone anything?

    There is literally no difference between how I defined it and the dictionary definition. If you have to move a piece (because it's your turn) but moving a piece weakens your position, you are in Zugzwang. If you can move a piece that doesn't weaken your position, you are not in Zugzwang. Therefore, what I wrote: "Zugzwang is a point in chess where an opponent has to move a piece, but moving any piece weakens their position catastrophically and irrecoverably."

    As an English speaker and a chess player, I am not about take lessons at the knee from an imbecile.

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  11. Are we playing Chess, or Go?

    I think that the US is playing Go with NATO.

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  12. Power abhors a vacuum.

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  13. Blowing the pipeline may have been a chess move... or a Go move...

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  14. In terms of "value"... what was the pipeline? Russia's "Queen" or just a "pawn"? ...or simply a neutral "Go" piece?

    I think it was her Queen. The key to Russia's "life".

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  15. ...and no Chess player worth his salt sacrifices a Queen to gain a pawn.

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  16. Okay, maybe Ukraine isn't a pawn. Maybe it's a knight or bishop.

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  17. ...and the value of "other pieces" remaining on the board, like the Ukrainian pipelines, have gone from bishops to rooks.

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  18. The NS pipeline destruction also improves Ukraine's bargaining position.

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  19. and no Chess player worth his salt sacrifices a Queen to gain a pawn.

    Only to take out the opposing Queen in a trade or if you're about to promote a pawn to Queen. If you've got two or more Queens, you're facing a opponent that probably should have resigned already.


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  20. ...and pump the gas through Nord Stream (instead of visa versa)?

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  21. Russia is too busy abandoning equipment and ammunition in Ukraine and begging North Korea to replace it LOL

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  22. Blowing up the NS pipeline also impairs their abilities to pay for equipment and ammunition replacements.

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  23. I was going to say that Uncle Wimpy's paying for all the sh*t Ukrainian Popeye's throwing at Russian Bluto.... but I'd be wrong. Europe's getting sent the bill.

    :P

    ReplyDelete
  24. \\Anonymous (((TC))) said...
    How can someone Google the definition of Zugzwang because they don't know what it means, still get it wrong, and act like they are teaching anyone anything?

    So? You like it. YOUR OWN way of argumentation used on you. ;-P

    Well, not your way completely. It seems I cannot play idiot like you with your baseless claims convincingly enough. Trying to introduce facts, instinctively.
    Still have lots to learn, to reach YOUR level. ;-P


    Well, still, though that is fuzzy thing. And your definition not entirely wrong.
    That is NOT "any piece", as it seen from examples -- there JUST NOT MANY of that other pieces/moves AVAILABLE. Need to be.
    And that is WHOLE POINT of it.


    \\If you can move a piece that doesn't weaken your position, you are not in Zugzwang.

    IF you HAVE that other piece. That's it.
    And "weaken your position" is subjective.




    \\Blogger -FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...
    In terms of "value"... what was the pipeline? Russia's "Queen" or just a "pawn"? ...or simply a neutral "Go" piece?

    \\I think it was her Queen. The key to Russia's "life".

    Pawn on seventh line.



    \\Blogger -FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...
    ...and no Chess player worth his salt sacrifices a Queen to gain a pawn.

    Easy as pie. Put is NOT chess player.
    Even not checkers player.
    Even not poker player.
    There is such a game. For kindergarden children. With checkers pieces.
    When players one by one sending their pieces with a flick to bat opponent's pieces.
    Kind of "war" game with matches.


    \\Blogger -FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...
    ...and pump the gas through Nord Stream (instead of visa versa)?

    You GOT the idea.
    Why EXACTLY one of North Straem Two pipes was spared?
    To corner Europe into allowing/certifying it, on RFia's condition, which you can guess what it would be yourself, or not?


    \\Blogger -FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...
    Okay, maybe Ukraine isn't a pawn. Maybe it's a knight or bishop.

    Naah... set of pieces. Whites. With a handicap! Half of main figures missing. Right of first move missed. Who was able to withstand full set of Blacks. And ready to end it with victory!


    \\Blogger -FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...
    The NS pipeline destruction also improves Ukraine's bargaining position.

    Naah. Pipe without gas in it -- useless.


    \\Blogger -FJ the Dangerous and Extreme MAGA Jew said...
    Blowing up the NS pipeline also impairs their abilities to pay for equipment and ammunition replacements.

    While prices on gas THAT high? 10X usual levels.

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  25. The map better tells the story of "values".

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  26. Termodinamical machine need source of heat... it need heatsink too. ;-)


    Well, we can continue with reverse play here. ;-)

    About recent Crymea Bridge bombing.
    I will be advocating unintelligible even for me idea -- that RFia's FSB did it yourself.
    And you'll try to persuade me, that that was Ukrainian SpecOps with help of USA, Britain or Israel help. ;-P
    Is it Ok?

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  27. This was such a good thread. Chess analogies. Pure detoures of thought.

    Only one little problem -- case was too obvious. ;-P

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